PoderData: Lula remains at 40%, Bolsonaro recovers slightly, and his lead in the first round drops 5 points in one month.

247 - Research PowerDate A survey released this Wednesday (16) shows that the advantage of former president Lula (PT) over Jair Bolsonaro has decreased in the first and eventual second round of the presidential election, due to the latter's recovery from the significant drop in 2021. A month ago, in the survey conducted between January 16 and 18, the distance between Lula and Bolsonaro was 14 percentage points. Now, the distance is nine points, which represents a drop of five points.

The Workers' Party candidate remains the leader in voting intentions, also surpassing all other pre-candidates in the second round. Lula is stable at 40%, and Bolsonaro has recovered slightly from the drop he experienced in January, now standing at 31%.

The poll indicates a higher chance of a second round: while Lula has 40% of the voting intentions, the sum of his opponents reaches 51%.

Lula has 40% of the voting intentions in the first round, compared to 31% for Jair Bolsonaro (PL), 9% for the biased former judge Sergio Moro (Podemos), and 4% for Ciro Gomes (PDT). 

The survey interviewed three thousand people by telephone between February 13th and 15th. The confidence level is 95% and the margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The survey code in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) system is BR-06942/2022.

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