Petrobras is expected to post a positive result in the 4th quarter of 2024, says Ineep.

247 - Estimates by the Institute for Strategic Studies of Oil, Natural Gas and Biofuels (Ineep) indicate that, in the fourth quarter of 2024 (4Q24), Petrobras should register a positive financial result, with an estimated net profit of R$ 12,97 billion. Furthermore, the company projects net revenue of R$ 117,3 billion, an adjusted EBITDA of R$ 58,5 billion, and dividend distributions of approximately R$ 16,4 billion.

According to Ineep, Petrobras, after registering a loss of R$ 2,6 billion in the second quarter of 2024 (2Q24) and a significant profit of R$ 32,5 billion in the third quarter (3Q24), is expected to see a more modest profit of R$ 12,97 billion in the last quarter of the year. This performance, although positive, occurs in a challenging scenario for the company, marked by a 10,5% reduction in total oil, LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas), and natural gas production indicators, when compared to the same period in 2023. Ineep points out that the main cause of this drop is the stability in pre-salt production and the significant reduction in post-salt production, in addition to onshore and shallow water operations.

These factors, coupled with the estimated 7,3% drop in international oil prices and a 10,8% decrease in domestic diesel prices, directly impacted the company's revenues. Furthermore, the modest growth in sales volume of refined products in the domestic market, which was only 1,4%, also contributed to the projected reduction in total revenues for Q4 24. Average refined product prices, for example, fell from R$486,00 per barrel in Q4 23 to R$460,00 per barrel in Q4 24, representing a decrease of 5,3%.