Atlas poll: Lula leads in all scenarios for 2026

247 - The Latam Pulse Brasil survey, conducted by AtlasIntel in partnership with Bloomberg between September 10 and 14, indicates that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads in all scenarios for the 2026 elections, both in the first and second rounds. The survey polled 7.291 voters nationwide and has a margin of error of one percentage point, with a 95% confidence level.

According to the data, Lula appears numerically ahead even in confrontations against the most competitive names on the right, such as Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), governor of São Paulo, and Michelle Bolsonaro, who emerges as an alternative to Jair Bolsonaro's inability to run due to convictions in the Supreme Federal Court.

First round: Lula leads

If the elections were held today and repeated the 2022 scenario, Lula would have 48,1% of the vote, compared to Jair Bolsonaro's 42,1%. Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet each have 2,7%, and the other candidates do not reach 2%.

In an alternative scenario against Tarcísio de Freitas, Lula also maintains the lead, with 48,2%, compared to 30,4% for the governor of São Paulo. In this scenario, the other candidates — such as Ciro Gomes, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Eduardo Leite — are below 5%.

Lula's advantage is even greater when his direct opponent is Michelle Bolsonaro: the president reaches 50,2% of voting intentions, compared to 33% for the former first lady.

Second round: advantage consolidated

In the second-round scenarios tested, Lula also leads comfortably. The survey shows the president beating Tarcísio de Freitas by 50,6% to 45,2%, Michelle Bolsonaro by 51,9% to 44,6%, and Jair Bolsonaro by 51,8% to 47,4%.

The difference widens in contests against other right-wing candidates: Lula would beat Romeu Zema by 51,1% to 37%, Ronaldo Caiado by 51,7% to 32,6%, and Eduardo Leite by 52,6% to 34,8%. In all simulations, the Workers' Party candidate maintains a margin of at least 4 percentage points, consolidating his position as the favorite for 2026.

Political implications

The result reinforces Lula's resilience in the electoral landscape, despite the polarized political environment and the divided assessment of his government. According to the same report, the president's approval rating remains at 50,8%, compared to 48,3% disapproval.

At the same time, the research highlights the difficulty the right wing is having in consolidating an alternative candidate. Although Tarcísio de Freitas and Michelle Bolsonaro appear as viable options, neither of them manages to surpass the 33% mark in the first round, nor reduce the disadvantage in the second.