Pandemic may have the opposite effect, reinforcing the ultraliberalism of Bolsonaro and Guedes' project, says journalist.

Current Brazil Network - The peculiarity of “Brazilian fascism"What Jair Bolsonaro is doing is abandoning economic nationalism, replacing it with limitless 'surrender'. The total subordination is not even to another nation, but to a fraction of the American elites. 'The worst of them,' led by the current Republican president, Donald Trump."

The most optimistic might imagine that, as Trump's re-election becomes increasingly uncertain, the "Bolsonarist neoliberal nightmare" may be nearing its end. But this wave of destruction of the Brazilian state, as well as workers' rights, also serves internal interests. This could prolong the agony.

Before the pandemic, the Brazilian economy was already struggling. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had 1,5% retraction in the first quarter, according to IBGEThis contradicts Minister Paulo Guedes, who said the country was about to "take off," were it not for the emergence of the new coronavirus. Now, without national coordination in the fight against the disease, the effects will be even more lasting.

For 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated a drop of up to 9% for Brazil. Leda Paulani, a professor in the Department of Economics and postgraduate studies at the University of São Paulo (USP), is even more pessimistic. "It's very unlikely we'll have a negative result of less than 10%," she stated.

Without stimulus

According to her, the pandemic reinforces the problem of "aggregate demand scarcity." The austerity policies adopted during the Temer administration, with the Spending Cap, and deepened by Bolsonaro, restrict any possibility of public investment. On the other hand, in April, the private investment rate fell to its lowest level since 2000, according to... GDP Monitor, from the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV). Global trade is also suffering severe restrictions.

“The economy has no stimulus to grow coming from anywhere,” said the economist in a virtual debate last Monday (13). Promoted by the Geringonça SP channel, it also featured the participation of economist Andrés Fontana, and was moderated by political scientist Antonio Lassance from the University of Brasília (UnB).

“We were already experiencing a growth in inequality. Everything that was achieved during the Lula and Dilma years was already being reversed. And now, it's much worse. The emergency aid improves things a little. But the lack of coordination in the pandemic response policy, the absence of a Minister of Health, in short, all of this will greatly worsen the living conditions of the poorest populations, brutally increasing misery and inequality in Brazil,” stated Leda.

Sources

According to Fontana, Brazil and the world are still experiencing the repercussions of the 2008 international crisis. "A crisis of global proportions caused precisely by this neoliberal model of capitalism." But instead of overcoming this model, what actually happened was a deepening of the deregulation of the capital market.

"The widespread austerity that resulted from the 2008/2009 crisis, this socialization of the damage produced by financialized capitalism, ended up creating the economic conditions for the resurgence of fascism."

The financial elites, after being bailed out by the states, imposed an austerity agenda upon them. Faced with rising public debt, the solution, according to market ideologues, is to cut spending. This same "mantra" is likely to be repeated in the post-pandemic era.

"When I see the discourse of this ecosystem formed by my fellow market economists, who are the spokespeople for the financialized elites, I realize that we are going to have yet another tsunami of arguments in defense of fiscal austerity, rampant privatizations, etc.," said Fontana.

That's why he believes this neoliberal agenda won't fall, not even in the event of a change in the White House, which would weaken the Bolsonaro-Guedes-Trump alliance. "However stupid these arguments may be, what needs to be clear is that the agenda doesn't belong to Paulo Guedes. It belongs to those financialized Brazilian elites, who have no project for the country, nor have they ever had one."

From the pre-salt oil reserves to Lava Jato.

According to Fontana, what propelled Brazil to the center of the global geopolitical chessboard was the discovery of the pre-salt oil reserves in 2006. However, the greed of the financial elites was accelerated by the 2008 crisis. Since then, the... deep state The American, in collusion with local elites, began waging what is known as "hybrid warfare" against the Workers' Party governments. The power grab was planned to take place in the 2014 elections.

"In 2009, training for prosecutors, judges, and the Federal Police began, through what is called..." deep state"—which includes the CIA, FBI, part of the Pentagon, and the State Department. It would end up in the implementation of the techniques of..." lawfare Here in Brazil, people would say I'm a conspiracy theorist. That term is very old, but it's been used very frequently, precisely by the CIA, to cover up its own conspiracies.

The saddled horse

Leda states that Bolsonaro adopted the ultraliberal discourse for "political convenience." From there, the alliance with the national financial elites was sealed. "All the high-income classes, who have a lot of voice and who end up constituting what we call public opinion, began to support the Bolsonaro government, fascism and all. It was very clear that he was an authoritarian who did not value democracy."

She explains that the financialized national bourgeoisie saw in Bolsonaro the possibility of reducing the size of the State. Social security, health, security, and sanitation are some of the sectors under state control, and which are of interest to these groups. "If the State withdraws, all of this becomes assets capable of generating profit."

On the other hand, more optimistic than Fontana, Leda believes that the pandemic puts the neoliberal state "in check." "Confronting the pandemic requires public health, public universities, science, the State, the SUS (Brazilian public healthcare system), everything that neoliberalism and Bolsonaro's supporters deny," she stated.