The risk posed by Bolsonaro is growing. The market is already talking about abandoning Alckmin.

By Mauro Lopes - Until very recently, any analyst who dared to predict that Bolsonaro would be accepted by the country's elites and become their candidate in the elections would have been ridiculed. But he is ceasing to be the "ugly duckling" of the right and becoming its main alternative. He has begun to deserve favorable headlines from traditional media outlets such as Folha de S. Paulo when announcing his government program and has been praised by increasingly large segments of the elites. This Wednesday (15), the important international consultancy of economist Nouriel Roubini, used as a reference for the North American market, indicated in a report that "we may see a shift towards supporting Jair Bolsonaro".   

Bolsonaro is attuned to the changing moods and is beginning to align his economic program with neoliberalism and the Temer government's agenda. This is because the swan the right wing longed for, Geraldo Alckmin, is himself becoming the ugly duckling. Round after round of polls, the PSDB candidate remains stagnant at around 5% to 6%. Bolsonaro is consolidated at around 20% in the polls and, contrary to what most analysts from both the right and the left imagined, is emerging unscathed from interviews and debates conducted by the conservative media so far. All the last chips of the right wing, from the PSDB to Temer, the "centrão" (center bloc), and broad business segments, will be played during the free election broadcast time.

Meanwhile, Bolsonaro is shifting his economic program to become the quintessential neoliberal candidate, seen as the only one capable of defeating the PT and uniting a conservative popular base with a moralizing agenda. Bolsonaro is working to shed the image of a fascist thug and adopt an agenda and persona reminiscent of Collor's in the 1989 elections, sharing similar characteristics: a neoliberal program, anti-corruption rhetoric, conservative views on social issues, and a viable alternative to defeat the PT.

It's yielding results. There are numerous facts that indicate this shift towards acceptance of the former captain by the elites:

1. A report by economist Nouriel Roubini's consulting firm, signed by senior economist for Latin America, Pedro Tuesta, states that the latest polls indicate that Alckmin's chances are indeed faltering: "We were cautious about market optimism when the Centrão coalition publicly supported Alckmin, and we remain skeptical about his chances." The analysis bets on the power of transferring Lula's electoral weight to Haddad if he is indeed disqualified by the TSE (Superior Electoral Court), which should lead him to the second round. He also draws attention to the fact that the perception that Alckmin is linked to the current government is an almost insurmountable obstacle. "Markets should prepare for a series of negative news and we may see a shift towards supporting Jair Bolsonaro, despite many doubts about his right-wing views," concludes Tuesta (read more). here).

2. The Folha de S.Paulo headline this Wednesday (15) is clearly sympathetic to the government program of the PSL candidate: "Bolsonaro proposes to merge ministries in the economic area". This is exactly what Collor promised - and fulfilled - in the 1989 election. The idea of ​​merging all economic portfolios and handing them over to a name considered trustworthy by the elites practically resolves the rejection of Bolsonaro. In the report, Folha already begins to compare the Bolsonaro program to the thinking of the eternal idol of neoliberals, the economist Milton Friedman. A similar movement is happening in all conservative media outlets, except, for now, Globo - the Marinho family trusts its powerful force to make Alckmin's name prevail in the race; but, just as in 1989, if they feel the battle is lost, they will join Bolsonaro's campaign with full force. The government program was treated with great seriousness by a media outlet that is currently the most well-oiled mouthpiece of the financial market, the InfoMoney website (read hereOn Monday (13), Bolsonaro had already left the "market" in ecstasy, when he stated in an interview with the same website that he will not charge tax on the distribution of company profits (dividends) and will not implement the inheritance tax at the federal level, unlike almost all other presidential candidates.

3. Bolsonaro's campaign has released the trial balloon that Donald Trump's political strategist, Steve Bannon, will provide "informal" advice to the candidacy. It is unknown if this is true. But Bannon, a living legend for the global right, despite being fired by Trump, lends an air of relevance and international articulation capacity to Bolsonaro. It is still unknown whether the news is actually true. If it is, it will be an important boost. 

4. Support for Bolsonaro is growing among segments of the business community. It began in mid-July, when the president of the National Confederation of Industry, Robson Braga de Andrade, declared his support for the candidate. That same week, major business figures such as Candido Bracher, president of Itaú Unibanco, David Feffer, chairman of the board of Suzano, José Roberto Ermírio de Moraes, member of the board of the Votorantim group, Pedro Wongtschowski, chairman of the board of the Ultra Group, and Marcelo Martins, vice-president of Cosan, attended a meeting organized by Abílio Diniz. Now, explicit expressions of support are beginning to emerge, such as those from Sebastião Bomfim, owner of the Centauro chain of sporting goods stores, one of the largest retail chains in the country; Flávio Rocha, from Riachuelo, who withdrew his candidacy; Salim Mattar (Localiza); Meyer Nigri (Tecnisa construction company); Fabio Wajngarten (Competition Control); and the ruralist Luiz Antonio Nabhan Garcia, president of the UDR.

The ugly duckling may be turning into the swan of the right. The risk to the country is growing.