Most Brazilians disapprove of Trump's threats and support Lula's response: "an attack on sovereignty."

247 - Most Brazilians consider the threat by US President Donald Trump to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian products to be unjustifiable. The perception is that it is a political retaliation and a direct attack on national sovereignty. This is revealed by new research from AtlasIntel, commissioned by Bloomberg News and released this Tuesday (15).

According to the survey, 50,3% of respondents understand the tariff threat as a hostile gesture, linked by Trump to the legal proceedings faced by Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in Brazil. In response to Trump's statement on July 9, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) stated that if the measure comes into effect on August 1, Brazil will react "in kind".

The majority of the population supports this stance: 44,8% of Brazilians consider Lula's response appropriate, while 27,5% consider it aggressive and 25,2% think it was weak. An even more significant percentage, 51,2%, supports the imposition of retaliatory tariffs, and 28,6% advocate strengthening ties with strategic rivals of the US, such as China.

Diplomatic tensions with Washington have had internal political effects. Lula's approval rating rose from 47,3% in June to 49,7% in July, while his disapproval rating fell from 51,8% to 50,3%. Furthermore, support for the federal government's foreign policy increased significantly: from 49,6% in November 2023 to 60,2% this month.

Another striking finding was the comparison between Lula and Bolsonaro on the international stage: 61,1% of respondents stated that the current president better represents Brazil abroad — an increase of 10 percentage points compared to the previous survey.

There is still some optimism regarding Brazilian diplomacy: 47,9% believe that the Lula government will be able to negotiate a solution with the US. The survey also shows the effects of the lobbying by Bolsonaro's allies in the United States. Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro stated that Trump's threat was a direct result of his lobbying to garner international support for his father, who is to be tried by the Supreme Federal Court for attempted coup d'état.

Jair Bolsonaro is accused of involvement in the coup attempts of January 8, 2023, when extremists stormed the buildings of the Three Branches of Government, and also in a plan to assassinate Lula, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, and Minister Alexandre de Moraes.

According to the survey, 62,2% of Brazilians consider the US president's decision unfair. For 40,9%, the motivation behind the tariff is Brazil's closer ties with the BRICS; another 36,9% directly point to the influence of the Bolsonaro family in the United States.

Trade threats have also impacted Trump's image in Brazil. The negative rating of the US president skyrocketed from 47% in November to 63,2% in July. His approval rating plummeted from 48% to 31,9% in the same period.

Perceptions about the United States have also deteriorated: 50,5% of respondents now have a negative view of the country, while 45,9% still maintain a positive assessment.

The economic outlook for the imposition of tariffs is also a concern: 48,6% of Brazilians believe there will be a significant impact on the economy, and about 70% expect an increase in inflation, which has already accumulated 5,35% in the 12 months leading up to June.

The AtlasIntel survey polled 2.841 people through online interviews conducted between July 12 and 14. The margin of error is two percentage points.