Most Brazilians consider Bolsonaro guilty of the attempted coup and support his imprisonment.

247 - Exclusive AtlasIntel research for the program GPS CNNA survey released this Saturday (21) reveals that the majority of the population believes that former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) was involved in an attempted coup d'état after his defeat to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in 2022. The survey also indicates that the majority of Brazilians believe that the investigations against the former president are impartial and that he should be arrested.

According to the survey, 51,7% of respondents said Bolsonaro participated in a coup plot, while 40,5% did not believe he was involved. Another 7,8% did not know how to answer.

Arrest, amnesty and trial

When asked what should happen to Bolsonaro, 52,5% of respondents said he should be arrested, while 27,2% believed he should be pardoned. Meanwhile, 17,7% advocated for him to be tried in freedom.

The survey also analyzed the public's perception of the handling of the investigation into Bolsonaro. For 53,8% of respondents, the inquiry into the former president is impartial. Another 29,7% believe the investigation is biased, while 1,6% believe it is less impartial than expected. 14,9% were unsure.

Impact on Bolsonaro's image

For Yuri Sanchez, director of AtlasIntel, the results indicate that Bolsonaro's association with a possible coup d'état is firmly entrenched in the public consciousness. "The fact that the majority of the Brazilian population believes that Jair Bolsonaro participated in plans for a coup d'état in 2022 indicates three important points: 1) that the former president has left a lasting impression of someone who could indeed be involved in a coup plot; 2) that shedding this image will not be easy, especially since it is a decades-long construct, not just the years he served as president; 3) and that this directly affects his future electoral ambitions," he told GPS CNN.

Sanchez also noted that, over the years, Bolsonaro has made several statements that reinforce this perception. "There are records, at least since 1999, of Jair Bolsonaro arguing that the Constitution guarantees the intervention of the Armed Forces to maintain law and order and declaring that he would close Congress if he were president of the Republic, saying he would stage a coup on the same day," he highlighted.

This history, according to the director of AtlasIntel, means that the investigations into 2022 don't cause much surprise among Brazilians. "For a considerable portion of the population, the investigations about Bolsonaro's involvement in the coup plot aren't a major surprise."

Trust in institutions

The survey also reinforces the public's trust in the legal process. "The survey reveals that there continues to be public support for the ongoing process. In this sense, there's good news for trust in institutions," said Sanchez.

He cited previous data to support his analysis. “In November 2024, in research also conducted for the GPS CNN, we had already shown that 60% trusted the Federal Police investigations that led to the indictment handed over to the Attorney General's Office (PGR). Now, with the formal complaint filed by the PGR and sent to the Supreme Federal Court, a 54% majority considers the investigations impartial, compared to 30% who believe they are biased.

For Sanchez, this scenario strengthens the democratic system. "This is an important result, given that the case is extremely relevant in the political and social debate, not to mention from a legal perspective. While there is room for improvement, trust in due process is crucial to overcoming the perception of impunity or favoritism toward politicians and the powerful, which undermines democracy," he concluded.