TV 247 logo
      Search
      HOME > Brazil

      Atlas survey points to Lula's reelection trend in the first round

      Survey shows the president with a wide lead in all first and second round scenarios

      Lula's government reaps another victory benefiting millions of workers (Photo: Ricardo Stuckert)

      247 - President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) maintains his lead in all first and second round scenarios for the 2026 presidential elections, according to an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll released this Friday (24). The survey interviewed 14.063 people between October 15 and 19 and has a margin of error of one percentage point, plus or minus.

      According to the survey, Lula has a wide lead over both right-wing and center-right opponents. In the first round, the president appears with 51,3% of voting intentions, followed by the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), with 30,4%. The governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil), totals 6%.

      In another scenario, Lula reaches 51%, compared to 26,2% for former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), while Caiado rises to 9,1%. In a third simulation, the president maintains 51%, with Caiado reaching 15,3%, the governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo), registering 10,6%, and the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Jr. (PSD), 10,4%.

      The study also tested a scenario without Lula's presence. In that case, the Finance Minister, Fernando Haddad (PT), would have 43,1% of the voting intentions, compared to 30,1% for Tarcísio and 7% for Caiado — a result that shows the strength of the Lula camp even without the president in the race.

      Second round

      In the scenarios of second shiftLula maintains his lead in all simulations. The Workers' Party candidate reaches... 52% of voting intentions In contests against Tarcísio de Freitas (44%), Michelle Bolsonaro (43%) and former president Jair Bolsonaro (44%). Against Romeu Zema, Lula wins by 52% to 35%; against Ronaldo Caiado, by 52% to 36%; and against the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Jr., by 51% to 37%.

      See the results of the poll for the second round:

      • Squid (PT): 52% x Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans): 44% — Blank/null: 5%

      • Squid (PT): 52% x Michelle Bolsonaro (PL): 43% — Blank/null: 5%

      • Squid (PT): 52% x Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 44% — Blank/null: 4%

      • Squid (PT): 52% x Romeu Zema (New): 35% — Blank/null: 14%

      • Squid (PT): 52% x Ronaldo Caiado (Union): 36% — Blank/null: 12%

      • Squid (PT): 51% x Ratinho Jr. (PSD): 37% — Blank/null: 12%

      Related Articles

      Tags