Lula beats Tarcísio in the first round, poll shows.

247 - A study released this Monday (25) by the Paraná Pesquisas institute revealed that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Jair Bolsonaro (PL) appear technically tied in a possible first-round dispute of the 2026 presidential election. According to the survey, Lula would win against all other candidates.

According to CNN BrazilAccording to the research, Lula reaches 34,8% of voting intentions, while Bolsonaro registers 35,2%. The margin of error of the survey is 2,2 percentage points, which puts the two candidates in a situation of a technical tie. The study interviewed 2.020 voters from all regions of the country, between August 17 and 21, with a 95% confidence level.

In addition to the direct comparison with Bolsonaro, the survey presented other scenarios. When the opponent was former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), Lula leads with 35,1% against her 28,9%. In this configuration, Ciro Gomes (PDT) appears with 9,4%, followed by the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Jr. (PSD), with 7,7%. The governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil), totals 4,6%, and the Minister of Transport, Renan Filho (MDB), registers 0,7%. Blank and null votes correspond to 8,2%, while 5,4% of those interviewed did not know how to answer.

However, when the candidate presented against Lula is the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), the Workers' Party candidate remains in the lead: 35,1% against 24,5% for the governor of São Paulo. Following them are Ciro Gomes (9,9%), Ratinho Jr. (8,8%), Caiado (4,6%), and Renan Filho (1,2%). In this scenario, 9,9% of voters declared they would cast a blank or null vote, and 6% did not express an opinion.

The survey also simulated second-round scenarios, pitting Lula against Bolsonaro, Michelle, and Tarcísio. In all cases, the results fell within the margin of error, indicating a technical tie.