Lula would only need a quarter of Ciro and Tebet's votes to avoid a second round, Quaest points out.

Paulo Donizetti de Souza, from Rebuildables - Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, candidate for president for the Brazil of Hope coalition, remains stable in the lead according to the Genial/Quaest survey, released this Wednesday (7). 

With 25 days to go until the first round, Lula (PT) maintains 44% of voting intentions, while Bolsonaro, with 34%, has risen 2 points. The other candidates who are scoring points total 13% – with Ciro Gomes (PDT) at 7% and Simone Tebet at 4%. Excluding the last line of the list below (blank/null/none), Lula has 48,35% of valid votes. Therefore, he would be 1,65 points away from reaching the necessary percentage to win in the first round.

• Lula (PT) – 44%
• Bolsonaro (PL) – 34%
• Ciro Gomes (PDT) has 7%.
• Simone Tebet (MDB) has 4%.
• Felipe D'Ávila (Novo) – 1%
• Sorya Thronicke (UB) – 1%
• Blank/null/none/undecided – 9%

According to the Genial/Quaest survey, 56% of those who say they would vote for Ciro in the first round say he should support Lula in the second, representing 4,3% of valid votes. Among Simone Tebet's voters, 41% believe the senator should support Lula. In this case, another 1,8% of valid votes. Furthermore, considering the support for Lula from the other two candidates who are scoring points (D'Ávila and Soraya), another 0,5% would shift to him.

In other words, the candidate from the "Brazil of Hope" coalition could inherit 6,6% of these valid votes in a possible second round. But if only a quarter of these votes migrated in the first round, Bolsonaro's defeat could be declared as early as October 2nd.

Electioneering measures do not boost Bolsonaro.

According to the director of Quaest Research and Strategy, Felipe NunesAlthough support for Lula is growing among Ciro and Simone Tebet's voters, it's still too early to predict a first-round victory. "It's best to wait at least another two weeks," he says. But there are less than four weeks until the election.

"Perhaps this is where the big shift that could happen in the final stretch lies. If these voters decide to migrate to Lula in the first round, we might see an early second round with strategic voting."

Some negative points of the Genial/Quaest survey for Bolsonaro.

• The majority (62%) of those surveyed believe that Bolsonaro's recent economic measures were driven by electoral interests, not by concern for the people.
• Confidence in Lula (39%) to continue the Auxílio Brasil program is higher than in Bolsonaro (34%).
• Lula maintains a large lead (45% to 30%) among women, who make up the majority of the electorate. But among men, Lula also leads (43% to 39%).
• Bolsonaro's disapproval rating (53%) is much higher than Lula's (44%).
• Lula's lead in the Northeast, the country's second-largest electoral college, is 38 points (60% to 22%).

Some negative points of the Genial/Quast survey for Lula.

• Bolsonaro maintains an advantage among evangelical voters (53% to 26%).
• Despite the statistical tie in the Southeast region, Bolsonaro appears with a numerical advantage for the first time (39% to 37%).
• Positive approval ratings for the Bolsonaro government reached 32%, while negative ratings reached 39%. These are the best figures the government has achieved since July of last year.

The survey polled 2.000 people between September 1st and 4th and is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-00807/22. The margin of error is 2 percentage points.

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