Lula leads in all second-round scenarios in 2026, according to Quaest.

247 - President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is leading in all second-round scenarios tested by the Quaest poll for the 2026 elections. The survey, released by g1 The survey, commissioned by Genial Investimentos, was conducted between September 12th and 14th, with 2.004 respondents nationwide. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus, and the confidence level is 95%.

According to the institute, Lula maintains an advantage over nine potential opponents: Ciro Gomes (PDT), Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), Ratinho Júnior (PSD), Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - ineligible -, Romeu Zema (Novo), Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil), Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL), and Eduardo Leite (PSD). The survey indicates stability compared to the previous poll, consolidating Lula as the leader in all scenarios.

First-round scenarios

Quaest simulated eight scenarios for the first round in 2026. In the most traditional scenario, with Lula and Jair Bolsonaro (who cannot run due to ineligibility), the president would have 32% of the vote, compared to 24% for the former president. Ciro Gomes appears with 11%, followed by Ratinho Júnior (8%), Romeu Zema (5%), and Ronaldo Caiado (4%). Undecided voters total 5%, while blank, null, or those who do not intend to vote represent 11%.

When Michelle Bolsonaro is tested in place of Jair Bolsonaro, Lula reaches 33% against 18% for the former first lady. In a scenario with Tarcísio de Freitas, Lula appears with 35% and the governor of São Paulo with 17%.

In scenarios where Eduardo Bolsonaro appears as a candidate, the president reaches 40% or more of the voting intentions, always widening his lead.

Second round dispute

In second-round scenarios, Lula maintains the lead in all matchups:

• Contrary to Ciro Gomes: 40% to 33%
• Contrary to Tarcisio de Freitas: 43% to 35%
• Contrary to Junior Mouse: 44% to 32%
• Contrary to Jair Bolsonaro: 47% to 34%
• Contrary to Romeo Zema: 45% to 32%
• Contrary to Michelle Bolsonaro: 47% to 32%
• Contrary to Fallen Ronaldo: 46% to 31%
• Contrary to Eduardo Bolsonaro: 47% to 29%
• Contrary to Eduardo Leite: 45% to 26%

Re-election and rejection of candidacies

The survey also investigated perceptions regarding Lula's reelection. The majority (59%) are against the president running again, while 39% support the idea. The rejection rate, although high, shows a decrease compared to May, when 66% declared themselves against it.

Regarding Jair Bolsonaro, 76% of those interviewed say that the former president should withdraw from the race and support another candidate. This number represents an 11-point jump compared to August. Only 19% believe that Bolsonaro should maintain his candidacy, even though he is ineligible.

When asked who should be the right-wing candidate if Bolsonaro does not run, respondents answered:

• Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos): 15% (it was 10% in August);
• Ratinho Júnior (PSD): 9% (previously 8%);
• Michelle Bolsonaro (PL): 5% (was 9%);
• Eduardo Leite (PSD): 3% (was 4%);
• Pablo Marçal (PRTB): 3% (was 4%);
• Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil): 3% (was 3%);
• Romeu Zema (Novo): 2% (was 2%);
• Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL): 2% (was 1%);
• Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 1% (was 1%);
• None of these: 28% (it was 20%);
• Don't know/no answer: 11% (it was 11%).

Fear of Lula or Bolsonaro

Quaest also asked which scenario generates more fear among voters: Lula's continuation as President or Jair Bolsonaro's return. For 49%, Bolsonaro's return would be the biggest cause for concern, compared to 41% who fear Lula remaining in office. Another 5% said they feared both, and 2% said they feared neither.

The survey reinforces that, so far, Lula maintains his lead over various opponents and remains the most competitive candidate for 2026, despite resistance from a significant portion of the electorate to his reelection.