Lula is 1 point away from winning in the first round, according to a polling aggregator from Estadão.
The tool also points to a victory for Lula with a 14-point lead in the event of a second round against Bolsonaro.
247 - Former President Lula (PT) is one point away from winning the presidential race in the first round. This is shown by the poll aggregator of Estado de S. Paulo, already updated this Monday (12) with the numbers released by FSB/BTG research (BR-06321/2022).
The aggregator has been compiling data since mid-March 2022 and projects Lula with 49% of the valid votes in the first round. To win in the first round, the candidate needs to receive 50% of the valid votes plus one.
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) appears in the aggregator with 37% of valid votes.
- Lula - 49%
- Bolsonaro - 37%
- Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 7%
- Simone Tebet (MDB) - 5%
- Others - 1%
Considering only in-person polls, the numbers remain the same. However, telephone surveys show Lula with 43% and Bolsonaro with 39%.
Second round
In its projection for a runoff between Lula and Bolsonaro, the aggregator predicts a 57% to 43% victory for the PT candidate, considering only valid votes. The numbers remain the same when analyzing in-person polls and telephone surveys separately.
- Lula - 57%
- Bolsonaro - 43%
Estadão's electoral poll aggregator uses data from surveys by 14 companies, taking into account their methodological peculiarities, to calculate the Estadão Data Average - the most likely scenario for the race each day, according to our model.
How works
According to the newspaper, the poll aggregator doesn't simply add up the results and divide them by the number of polls. "The aggregator controls several parameters and gives different weights to the surveys to prevent outliers or outdated numbers from pulling one of the competitors up or down."
"Our model considers that, on average, in-person surveys are more accurate in assigning the rate of voting intention for each candidate. On the other hand, telephone surveys are conducted more frequently and can better capture any changes in trends," the publication further explains.
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