Ipec, FSB, PoderData, Quaest: find out which polls will be conducted this week for the Presidency.
This week will be marked by the release of new polls regarding the race for the Palácio do Planalto (Presidential Palace).
Brazil of Fact - Two weeks before the election that will define the next president of the Republic, at least four large research institutes will release surveys with voting intentions for the position, between September 19 and 21. So far, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads in all scenarios, always followed by the current president, Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who is seeking re-election.
The Estadão Dados electoral poll aggregator indicates that, on average across the polls considered, Lula has 44% of the voting intentions and Jair Bolsonaro, 33%. The calculation considers the trend lines for each candidate (whether they are stable, rising, or falling) and assigns different weights to the polls according to their "age" (the date they were conducted) and methodology.
Considering only valid votes, that is, excluding blank, null, and undecided votes, Lula has 48% and Bolsonaro 37%. Considering only in-person polls (more reliable, according to experts), the Workers' Party candidate reaches 49% of valid votes. To win the election in the first round, it is necessary to surpass the 50% mark.
Bolsonaro needs a historic turnaround to surpass Lula, reversing a trend that has been in place since the first presidential election after the country's redemocratization. Since 1989, all candidates who were leading in the polls 15 days before the first round ended up ahead on election day.
If Bolsonaro finishes in second place and faces Lula in the runoff election, he will have another "mission impossible." In the six runoff elections in Brazilian presidential history, there has been no upset. In all of them, the candidate who was leading during the first round won the election in the final round of voting.
Read about the main research projects scheduled for the week:
FSB
Publication date: September 19, 2022 | Contracting entity: Banco Pactual | Registration: BR-07560/2022 | Interviews: September 16, 2022 to September 18, 2022
ipec
Publication date: September 19, 2022 | Contracting party: Globo | Registration: BR-00073/2022 | Interviews: September 13, 2022 to September 19, 2022
Poderdata
Publication date: September 21, 2022 | Contracting entity: Poderdata | Registration: BR-00407/2022 | Interviews: September 18, 2022 to September 20, 2022
Quest
Publication date: September 21, 2022 | Contracting entity: Banco Genial | Registration: BR-04459/2022 | Interviews: September 17, 2022 to September 20, 2022
Subscribe to 247, Support via Pix, Subscribe to TV 247, in the channel Cuts 247 and watch: