Trump's trade war against Brazil should bring Lula closer to business leaders and agribusiness.
The government believes the measure creates an opportunity to isolate Eduardo Bolsonaro and Tarcísio de Freitas and regain support from productive sectors.
247 - The announcement by US President Donald Trump regarding the imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazilian products was interpreted as an unexpected political opportunity by the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).
According to sources close to the president, as reported by... MetropolisThe measure adopted by Trump could function as a "gift" for the Brazilian government, paving the way for a rapprochement with business sectors historically aligned with Bolsonaro. The assessment is that the US government's decision is causing widespread unease among producers, including in agribusiness, and could favor a reconstruction of dialogue with productive sectors—along the lines of what occurred during Lula's first two terms.
Wear and tear for Bolsonaro and Tarcísio - The sudden taxation announced by Trump, seen as retaliation for the investigation Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is facing in the Supreme Federal Court (STF), has already provoked a negative reaction, even among opposition parliamentarians. The Parliamentary Front for Entrepreneurship and the Parliamentary Front for Agriculture have expressed criticism of the United States' measure and demanded action from the Brazilian government.
Besides seeing an opportunity to strengthen dialogue with the business community, President Lula's aides also see a strategic move that could undermine the electoral ambitions of figures like Eduardo Bolsonaro and Tarcísio de Freitas. The congressman on leave, who has been in the US since February orchestrating sanctions against Brazil, is pointed to by sectors of the left as responsible for encouraging actions harmful to the national economy. "I have no doubt, I want to reaffirm: he said he was going to harm Alexandre de Moraes and he harmed all of Brazil," stated the PT leader in the Chamber of Deputies, Lindbergh Farias (RJ).
The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), was also criticized for recently supporting Trump's statements. "What is the position of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas? Two days ago he applauded Trump when he said that only the people could judge Bolsonaro," Lindbergh fired back, referring to the post made by the governor.
Business community reacts to tariff - The most forceful reaction came precisely from sectors traditionally sympathetic to Bolsonaro. Deputy Joaquim Passarinho (PL-PA), president of the Parliamentary Front for Entrepreneurship, stated: “I see this with sadness for the Brazilian economy; we are a great American partner… I think the president often exaggerates in this type of statement.” Although he criticized Trump, Passarinho also demanded greater international articulation capacity from the Lula government: “There is a lack of interlocutor with the American government. He needs a better interlocutor.”
The Parliamentary Agricultural Front (FPA), in turn, warned of the direct economic effects of the measure announced by the White House. "The measure, communicated through an official letter sent to the Brazilian government, represents a warning about the balance of commercial and political relations between the two countries," highlighted the group led by Congressman Pedro Lupion (PP-PR), in an official statement.
Lula promises reciprocity - The official response from the Brazilian government was based on the Economic Reciprocity Law. According to President Lula, if the United States does not back down on the tariffs, Brazil will adopt similar measures against American products.
Geopolitical context - Since the beginning of his second term, Donald Trump has hardened his trade rhetoric, with a special focus on the BRICS countries—a bloc of which Brazil is a part. He has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 100% on countries in the group that, according to him, do not respect the "commercial interests of the USA".
In the case of Brazil, the taxation was accompanied by direct criticism. "Brazil is not being good to the U.S.," Trump stated, justifying the measure. This statement further intensified the climate of tension between the two countries.
