Gleisi debuts in the Senate race with up to 17% and enters the competitive bloc in Paraná.

247 - The Minister of the Secretariat of Institutional Relations, Gleisi Hoffmann (PT-PR), began her journey in the race for the Senate with a significant performance in voting intentions in Paraná. In the first poll measuring her name for the 2026 race, the PT member reaches up to 17% and joins the group of candidates with competitive potential in a still fragmented scenario.

As information is from Esmael's Blog, based on a survey by Futura Inteligência. The survey was conducted between Saturday (24) and Tuesday (27), with a margin of error of 3,5 percentage points and registrations BR-04148/2026 and PR-08318/2026 at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE).

In the initial measurement, Gleisi appears with 16,9% of voting intentions, a figure considered significant for a first electoral test. The cross-tabulations indicate better performance among women, voters in urban areas, and lower income brackets, revealing an immediate electoral base for the minister in the state.

The result puts Gleisi ahead of traditional names in Paraná politics, such as Cristina Graeml (União), Beto Richa (PSDB), Osmar Dias (PDT), and Flávio Arns (PSB). This performance reinforces the view that the progressive field already has a defined pole for the major Senate race in Paraná.

The research points to a fragmented picture. Ratinho Junior (PSD) leads in the tested scenarios, followed by Deltan Dallagnol (Novo) and Álvaro Dias (MDB). The distance between Gleisi and the third-placed candidate, however, remains within the margin of error, keeping the race open. Dallagnol is ineligible until 2031, while Ratinho Junior has reiterated that he does not intend to run for the Senate and is among the PSD's options for the Presidency of the Republic, according to the party led by Gilberto Kassab.

With undecided voters and blank votes exceeding 24%, the survey indicates room for growth throughout the campaign. In Senate races, this contingent tends to become clearer closer to the election, influenced by political alliances and the national political landscape.

Leading the political coordination of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's government, Gleisi enters the race with a high degree of visibility and capacity for party organization. In the context of Paraná, her debut with over 15% suggests that the Senate election could take on national dimensions and reduce the advantage of conservative candidates, especially if the right-wing field remains fragmented.

Behind the scenes, the assessment is that the initial performance strengthens the minister's ability to broaden alliances and consolidate the opinion vote. The first measurement signals real competitiveness for the PT in the race for the Senate in Paraná in 2026 and alters the axis of the dispute, which now depends on strategy, campaign timing, and the national political environment.