2026 Elections: Governors Divided Between Reelection and Succession
Nine governors intend to run for reelection and another nine plan to run for the Senate. Two are not expected to run and four are vying for the Presidency.
247 - The 2026 election year began with intense activity among governors, who are orchestrating resignations, party changes, and strategies to run for new positions or ensure the continuity of their political groups in their states. Of the 27 state governors, most have already defined their course: some will seek reelection, others will run for Senate seats, while some governors are considering a presidential run or remain undecided about their political future, in a scenario that should provoke significant changes in state governments, according to [source missing]. Folha de São Paulo.
According to the survey, nine governors intend to run for reelection, another nine plan to run for the Senate, and two have already decided not to be candidates. In addition, four are trying to position themselves as presidential candidates, and three have not yet announced their electoral destination. Those who intend to run for other offices must leave their posts by April 4th, according to electoral law, which should lead to resignations in at least 13 states and the ascension of vice-governors in 11 of them.
In at least ten states, vice-governors are seen as natural candidates for succession, a strategy aimed at preserving the political influence of the current governors. In Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo) plans to hand over the position to his vice-governor Matheus Simões (PSD), who is trying to increase his public profile by relying on social media and the visibility of the current governor, who has launched his pre-candidacy for the Presidency. In Pará, Vice-Governor Hana Grassan (MDB) is expected to run for governor after the resignation of Helder Barbalho (MDB), who intends to run for the Senate, marking his first major candidacy as the head of the ticket.
In Rio Grande do Sul, Vice-Governor Gabriel Souza (MDB) has the support of Governor Eduardo Leite (PSD) in a race that is likely to polarize between candidates from the PT and PL parties. Similar situations are repeated in the Federal District, Goiás, Mato Grosso, Paraíba, Espírito Santo, Acre, and Roraima, where vice-governors also position themselves as the political heirs of the current leaders.
The anticipated resignations should reinforce the dominance of center-right parties in the states. The PP, which currently governs two states, could reach four with the rise of Lucas Ribeiro in Paraíba and Celina Leão in the Federal District. The Republicanos party also tends to expand its presence, reaching four state governments, including Mato Grosso and Roraima. The MDB could jump from two to five governors, with changes in Pará, Espírito Santo, and Rio Grande do Sul. The PSD, in turn, could govern five states if the resignations of governors aiming for the Presidency are confirmed, such as Ronaldo Caiado (Goiás), Ratinho Jr. (Paraná), and Eduardo Leite (Rio Grande do Sul).
On the left, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is expected to retain allies in control of ten states, but the progressive camp is likely to lose ground. The resignations of Fátima Bezerra (PT-RN), Renato Casagrande (PSB-ES), and João Azevêdo (PSB-PB) will open up space for vice-governors linked to the center-right. In Rio Grande do Norte, the situation is more complex: after the break with Vice-Governor Walter Alves (MDB), who will leave office to run for state representative, the Legislative Assembly will have to choose an interim governor. For the election, the PT has nominated Cadu Xavier, the state Secretary of Finance, as its candidate.
In Rio de Janeiro, Governor Cláudio Castro (PL) also intends to resign to run for the Senate, but the state does not have a vice-governor, since Thiago Pampolha left the post in 2025 to assume a position on the Court of Auditors. Just as in Rio Grande do Norte, the Rio de Janeiro Legislative Assembly will have to choose an interim governor until the end of the term.
In other states, governors opted to remain in office until the end of their term. In Alagoas, Paulo Dantas (MDB) is working to enable the return of his predecessor, the Minister of Transport Renan Filho (MDB). In Maranhão, Carlos Brandão (independent) withdrew from the Senate race after conflicts with his vice-governor Felipe Camarão (PT) and remains in government, orchestrating the candidacy of his nephew, Orleans Brandão, the current state secretary.
There are still states marked by uncertainty. In Amazonas, Tocantins, and Rondônia, governors are avoiding announcing their plans amidst friction with their vice-governors. In Amazonas, Wilson Lima (União Brasil) is considering running for the Senate, but faces administrative strain and is considering a run for the Chamber of Deputies as an alternative. In Tocantins, Wanderlei Barbosa (Republicanos), removed from office by the courts for three months in 2025, is resisting handing over control to his vice-governor, Laurez Moreira (PSD), his internal political rival.
Among the governors expected to seek reelection is Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), in São Paulo, who has lost momentum as a presidential candidate after the pre-candidacy of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). In the Workers' Party camp, Jerônimo Rodrigues (Bahia) and Elmano de Freitas (Ceará) face administrative setbacks and the shadow of their predecessors, now ministers Rui Costa and Camilo Santana, but the trend is that both will seek another term. In Santa Catarina, Jorginho Mello (PL) suffered a setback with the break from the MDB, a party with a strong municipal presence, but still appears as the favorite for reelection in a state with a predominantly Bolsonaro-supporting profile.
