Datafolha: Moro's departure has little impact and Bolsonaro begins to shift his social base.
A Datafolha poll indicates that Moro's departure has little impact on the most influential segments of the population and points to a slight change in the profile that sustains Bolsonaro's support ratings.
247 - According to Mauro Paulino, Director-General of Datafolha, and Alessandro Janoni, Director of Research, the results of the institute's most recent telephone survey show the polarization of public opinion and the division of the country regarding the government's image.
"Fewer people consider Jair Bolsonaro (no party affiliation) an average president, while approval and disapproval ratings for his administration remain at equivalent levels. An impeachment process or the president's eventual resignation also divides Brazilians," they write in an article in Folha de S.Paulo.
"When comparing the popularity data obtained now with that observed in December of last year, the last survey with the question of general evaluation of the government, no major changes are perceived in the total."
"But when tracing trends across population strata, it confirms a trend already observed in the institute's research on the coronavirus epidemic over the past month: there is a slight change in the profile that sustains Bolsonaro's support ratings."
The directors of Datafolha highlight in their analysis that "while the effects of the health crisis have distanced some of the more educated and wealthier segments of the president's base, they have also brought in more needy segments that are dependent on public policies, especially in the economic area."
"Compared to the survey from four months ago, they point out that Bolsonaro has lost popularity mainly among those with a family income of more than five minimum wages. In this segment, which corresponds to only 10% of Brazilians, the president's approval rating has fallen by 11 percentage points."
"On the other hand, among those with an income of up to two minimum wages (approximately 60% of those interviewed), the rate of excellent or good ratings rose eight points in the same period, a magnitude identical to that observed among self-employed and informal workers, with a family income of up to three minimum wages, who are theoretically eligible to receive the emergency aid released by the government."
"In this context, since no general government evaluation surveys have been conducted in recent weeks, but rather specific surveys on the administration's performance in combating the epidemic, it is not possible to directly measure the effects of Sergio Moro's resignation on Bolsonaro's popularity."
"The contrasts observed precisely in these segments with lower income and education levels point to an impact that is still incipient."
"The low level of information and the noise that the episode may have caused in strata that have a high quantitative weight in the composition of the electorate minimized its reach, and the repercussions are concentrated among the most educated and those who earn more than five minimum wages, who had already been criticizing the president due to his performance in combating the new coronavirus."