Datafolha: Bolsonaro's arrest divides Brazilians, and 51% doubt it will happen.
A poll shows a tie between those who support imprisonment and those who want the former president free, while Trump pushes for sanctions against Brazil.
247 - The new Datafolha search, released by FSPThe survey reveals that Brazilian society is deeply divided on the fate of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the face of the trial investigating his alleged participation in the 2022 coup plot. According to the survey, 48% of respondents believe the former president should be imprisoned, while 46% want him to remain free. However, the prevailing perception is that Bolsonaro will escape jail: 51% of Brazilians believe he will not be imprisoned.
The survey was carried out on Tuesday (29) and Wednesday (30), with 2.044 respondents, and has a margin of error of two percentage points more or less. Compared to the April survey, there was a reversal within the margin of error: before, 52% supported Bolsonaro's arrest and 42% were against it. Now, there is a virtual tie, reflecting a momentary change of moods.
International context and US pressure
The release of the research comes amid a diplomatic crisis between the United States and Brazil. US President Donald Trump, in his second term starting in 2025, has embraced the narrative that Bolsonaro is a victim of political persecution. The Republican even used this argument to justify higher tariffs on Brazilian products, increasing bilateral tension.
Trump's offensive is supported by Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), the former president's son, who moved to the United States to lead a campaign in favor of his father's amnesty. Meanwhile, Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, the rapporteur for the case, has become a direct target of the American president. Moraes had his American visa revoked and was recently included on a US sanctions list that freezes the assets of foreigners accused of violating human rights—a measure originally designed for dictators and international criminals. This measure is expected to be challenged in court on grounds of illegality.
Trial and accusation in Brazil
Bolsonaro will be tried in the Supreme Federal Court on charges of fomenting a conspiracy to remain in power after being defeated by President Lula (PT) in the second round of 2022. According to the complaint filed by the Attorney General's Office, the scheme involved politicians and the military, but it failed and culminated in the coup attempts of January 8, 2023.
If convicted, the former president could face a sentence ranging from 12 to 43 years in prison. Bolsonaro denies all accusations and maintains his narrative of political persecution, which has resonated with his base of supporters and in the international network led by Trump.
Who wants to see Bolsonaro in jail?
The Datafolha survey also showed regional and social divisions. Those who most strongly support the imprisonment of the former president are voters who earn up to two minimum wages, those from the Northeast region of Brazil, and supporters of the Workers' Party (PT). Support for Bolsonaro's innocence is higher among evangelicals, residents of the South of Brazil, and members of the lower middle class who identify with Bolsonarism.
Despite political and international tensions, the prevailing expectation remains that the trial in September will not lead to the former president's imprisonment, reinforcing the perception of impunity that persists in part of the public opinion.
