Datafolha shows that 54% of Brazilians are against the amnesty proposal.
The majority also supports the imprisonment of the former president.
247 - The institute's most recent research Datafolha, released by Folha de S. PaulThe poll indicates that the majority of Brazilians oppose amnesty for former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL). Convicted by the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to 27 years and 3 months in prison for attempted coup d'état and other crimes, Bolsonaro faces popular resistance: 54% reject amnesty, while 39% support the measure.
The survey, conducted on September 8th and 9th with 2.005 voters in 113 municipalities, also revealed that 2% said they were indifferent to the issue and 4% did not know how to answer. The margin of error is two percentage points. The survey also showed that 61% of respondents reject any type of pardon for those convicted for the attacks of January 8, 2023, which vandalized the headquarters of the Three Powers in Brasília. Only 33% support this possibility.
Historic trial and political pressures
Bolsonaro's conviction is unprecedented in Brazilian history: he became the first former president to be sentenced for attempting to remain in power. Four of the five justices of the Supreme Court's First Panel voted for the conviction, and the sentence will be served in a closed regime if all appeals are denied.
International reactions and political impact
The Bolsonaro family is seeking external support and has been promoting a narrative of political persecution. Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro even asked the government of the current US president, Donald Trump, to intervene in the case. Trump, in turn, raised tariffs on Brazilian imports by 50% and imposed sanctions against Alexandre de Moraes and other Supreme Court justices.
Even in this scenario, ministers associated with Bolsonaro — André Mendonça, Kassio Nunes Marques, and Luiz Fux — maintained their visas in the US.
Regional and social profile of the rejection of amnesty.
Opposition to the pardon is strongest in the Northeast, where 63% of respondents were against amnesty, compared to 31% in favor. Among the wealthiest, however, there is a balance: 50% support the measure, and 46% reject it. Support is also growing among residents of the South (46% in favor, 44% against), North/Central-West (48% to 45%), and among evangelicals (52% to 40%).
In cases related to the January 8 attacks, rejection of amnesty has returned to the same level as in 2023, after a slight drop recorded in the surveys of April and July of this year.
Datafolha also surveyed public opinion on the former president's arrest. Half of those interviewed (50%) support the measure, while 43% are against it.
