'Crisis shows that neoliberalism is not for people, but for business'

Eduardo Maretti, Current Brazil Network - The paralysis of the country's economy due to the truckers' strike clearly demonstrates the extent to which the consequences of neoliberal policies adopted by the Temer government and the president of Petrobras, Pedro Parente, whose appointment is attributed to former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso, can reach. "What is happening with oil today is the biggest lesson that neoliberalism doesn't serve people, but businesses. We have an extreme neoliberal agenda, and this has laid bare what society doesn't want," says Cândido Grzybowski, special advisor to the Brazilian Institute of Social and Economic Analyses (Ibase).

He doesn't believe the government's predictions that the fuel shortage caused by the strike, or lockout, triggered by the surge in fuel prices, will be resolved in a few days. "There are escorted trucks starting to move with fuel. But there has been a disruption in production as well."

In this sense, even with trucks allowed to distribute goods and products of all kinds, there is no way to solve problems with perishable foods such as milk, for example. Producers have discarded millions of liters since the beginning of the crisis. "It's not just distribution, as it has affected production. The same thing is happening with chicken. Will there be enough stock to supply the market?" asks the sociologist. He points out that chicken is important in the Brazilian diet today, as it is the cheapest meat.

According to the analyst, the fact that large business owners are extremely upset about the losses and the paralysis of business does not disguise their responsibility for the chaos, since they helped sponsor the coup that ousted Dilma Rousseff. "The damage is great, but the greater damage is to the population, which is already unemployed, hunger is returning, and now this crisis on top of everything else."

Grzybowski points out that the policy that linked fuel prices to the international price of a barrel of oil – which triggered the current situation – is a direct consequence of the 2016 parliamentary coup, which completely distorted the role of a state-owned company as important and large as Petrobras.

"What is the purpose of a state-owned company? Petrobras, as an asset of Brazilian society, should serve as a kind of buffer to cushion the impact of the market and a geopolitical dispute over natural resources in a global landscape of imperialisms, in this case, American imperialism which sees itself threatened by Chinese imperialism," he assesses.

Speculations
Amid the chaos, speculation is fueled by the discouragement of big businessmen, who are "disconsolate." Temer could be about to fall.

At an event held by the newspaper Valor Econômico on Monday (28), with dozens of them present, the atmosphere was heavy. The president of Suzano Papel e Celulose, Walter Schalka, painted a grim picture of the current situation, saying that the crisis triggered by the truckers will affect the 2018 GDP by one percentage point. "The economy has stopped," he said.

On the same day, the president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Luiz Fux, added fuel to the fire of speculation by saying that the October elections are at risk. "[The strike] has raised a red flag regarding the very holding of the elections," he stated. "If a similar movement occurs in October, it could affect the distribution of electronic voting machines and the movement of people."

Meanwhile, the president of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Cármen Lúcia, scheduled a case questioning whether Congress can institute a parliamentary system through a Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC). The hearing will be on June 20th.

On Tuesday night (29), the TSE rejected deciding whether a defendant subject to criminal proceedings can be a candidate for the presidency of the Republic. Understanding that it is not up to the TSE to decide on the matter, the ministers preferred to wash their hands and, with that, avoided preventing the candidacies of both former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and deputy Jair Bolsonaro (PSL-RJ), who is facing two criminal proceedings in the STF.

The political and economic crisis, of unimaginable proportions even ten days ago, puts the country in a situation symbolically comparable to a "fire with a lot of smoke." "Who will come out of this alive is difficult to say," says Grzybowski.

According to him, given the scale of the crisis, the election is at risk. "Temer, sooner or later, will fall, and could go straight to prison. That's one variable. Or will they manage to get him an ambassadorship so he can leave the country?" A solution in the national interest would require "prudence from all actors, because the worst can only be avoided through a kind of pact," he believes.

According to this pact, political and institutional forces would need to agree that the best solution for everyone would be to guarantee that there will be an election in 2018. "In a crisis like this, only with everyone making concessions is it possible to do something. Would everyone agree that it's better to guarantee an election, whoever is elected? To release Lula, for example, so that he can run and things don't get even worse?", ponders Cândido Grzybowski.