Voter turnout will be crucial for Lula's chances of winning in the first round.

BRASILIA (Reuters) - Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) gained strength in the final stretch of the presidential election campaign, according to opinion polls, and could defeat current President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the first round scheduled for Sunday -- if his voters turn out in large numbers to vote.

However, high abstention, especially among the poorer electorate, which is inclined towards Lula, could mean that the election will go to a second round, which would take place on October 30th. If none of the 11 candidates for the presidency obtains more than 50% of the valid votes, which excludes blank and null votes, the two leading candidates—Lula and Bolsonaro, according to the polls—will go to a second and decisive round of voting.

"Lula has a real chance of winning in the first round, but the issue of abstention will be a major challenge for the PT and its allies," said André César, from the consulting firm Hold Assessoria Legislativa. He warned of the risk of "overconfidence," with some Lula voters not going to vote because they believe that the PT candidate has already been elected and their vote is not necessary.

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Although voting is mandatory for most adults in Brazil, many end up paying the negligible fine for not showing up or justifying their absence—especially poorer voters who face transportation difficulties or other demands on election day. The abstention rate has been increasing in recent years, reaching 23% in the 2020 municipal election, when the Covid-19 pandemic also played a role.

"If abstention is homogeneous across all groups, I think Lula will win in the first round," said Rafael Cortez, a political analyst at Tendências Consultoria.

However, there is no consensus among the projections.

The Eurasia consultancy estimates a 20% to 25% chance of Lula winning the election in the first round, with an upward trend as voters of other candidates with low voting intentions switch to Lula or Bolsonaro.

Although traditional institutes that conduct in-person surveys, such as Ipec and Datafolha, indicate that Lula has a chance within the margin of error of winning in the first round, surveys conducted by telephone, such as those by FSB Pesquisa, Ipespe, and Ideia, show the race going to a second round, with Lula winning in a runoff election.

These discrepancies between the surveys may indicate researchers' access to poorer voters, who are relatively easier to interview in person and more difficult to contact by telephone. The cancellation of the 2020 Census also makes it difficult for institutes to calibrate their samples.

However, most agree that a high voter turnout would be good news for Lula.

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A PoderData survey indicated that, among those considering not voting, 54% are Lula voters and 22% are Bolsonaro voters.

"If there is any variation in voter turnout, this variation theoretically harms Lula, because voters with lower incomes and lower levels of education, all else being equal, tend to be less likely to participate in the election. If this historical pattern is confirmed, it could hinder the scenario of a first-round victory," said Cortez.

That said, the analyst from Tendências points out that the possibility of Lula settling the score in the first round is "in the realm of feasibility".

"Lula enters the final stretch of the campaign with a level of vote share very similar to that of Fernando Henrique when he won in the first round in 1998," he said, referring to the approximately 53% of valid votes that FHC received in that year's election.

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