Fearing imprisonment, Bolsonaro mobilizes his supporters, intensifies his offensive against the Supreme Court, and pushes for amnesty.

247 - Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is showing signs of making a strategic shift in the face of the progress of the trial regarding the attempted coup d'état. After becoming a defendant in the Supreme Federal Court (STF) last Wednesday (26), he increased his public exposure and hardened his discourse, seeking to mobilize his base more intensely, reports the Folha de S. Paul.

According to his allies, Bolsonaro's goal is clear: to mobilize his supporters, reinforce the narrative of political persecution, and attempt to create an environment of popular pressure to reverse the course of the trial—whether through the approval of an amnesty in Congress or through eventual international intervention. Behind the scenes, Bolsonaro supporters are even betting on a reaction from the United States against the Brazilian judiciary as a tactic to rebalance the playing field.

Mobilization underway - Still on Wednesday (26), the day he was indicted, Bolsonaro gave a speech for 50 minutes and then spoke for another 45 minutes with journalists in the Senate. Since then, Bolsonaro supporters have intensified their calls for public demonstrations. The left has called for a demonstration on Avenida Paulista next Sunday (30), with the aim of demanding Bolsonaro's arrest. Meanwhile, supporters of the former president will be present on the same avenue the following Sunday, April 6, with the participation of allied parliamentarians and governors.

Senator Jorge Seif (PL-SC), one of the organizers of the mobilization, stated: “We are going to travel all over Brazil and hold demonstrations for amnesty. He will go to Rio Grande do Norte, he will go to Santa Catarina, he will go to Paraná, he will go to São Paulo. He will go on with his life normally. Next year is an important election. We need to strengthen the leadership of our parties, of our allies.”

The strategy, allies say, includes letting Bolsonaro speak freely, without a pre-established script, with the only recommendation being to avoid insults and profanity—something that has caused problems in the past, such as when he called Minister Alexandre de Moraes a "scoundrel." Even so, the former president again used an aggressive tone and attacked the electronic voting machines. "I am not obliged to believe in, to trust a programmer. I trust the machine," he stated in a new criticism of the electronic voting system.

He also reinforced the narrative of persecution: “[The Supreme Court] wants to put 30 [years in prison] on me. If I owed anything, I wouldn't be here. I went to the United States, thank God, because if I were here on January 8th, I would still be in jail today. Or dead, which is the dream I know some people have. Because in jail I'll be a handful.”

Against Mauro Cid's plea bargain and in defense of amnesty - During his planned trips around the country, Bolsonaro intends to insist on the arguments his defense has already presented to the Supreme Court, especially to try to discredit the testimony of Mauro Cid, his former aide-de-camp, who is now a central figure in the investigations into the attempted coup.

The focus of the discourse now centers on the proposed amnesty for those involved in the attacks of January 8, 2023. In addition to appealing to Congress, Bolsonaro intends to use popular mobilization as a tool for pressure. The current version of the amnesty bill under discussion is broad, and there is an expectation among his allies that he himself may benefit from it.

Eyes turned towards Washington - Another component of Bolsonaro's strategy involves the hope that the United States, under the eventual return of Donald Trump to the presidency, will impose some kind of sanction or restriction on ministers of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), especially Alexandre de Moraes. According to federal deputy Sanderson (PL-RS), this international reaction could provoke some internal movement. "It could even cause some minister to request a review. You could have some positioning from international institutions about what is happening," he stated.

Internally, there is anticipation regarding the stance of Minister Luiz Fux, the only one so far to express disagreement with Moraes' decisions in the cases of the coup-mongering attacks. Bolsonaro, who attended the second day of the trial alongside his son Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), said he was "positively surprised" by Fux, which generated optimism among his supporters.

Excerpts from the minister's speeches are already circulating on pro-Bolsonaro social media, although allies still have doubts about Fux's vote in the merits of the case. Until then, Bolsonaro will continue to rely on street protests and the discourse of political martyrdom as a survival strategy and an attempt to turn the tide in the Supreme Court.