Centrão sees bluff in PSD presidential candidacies and considers informal support for Lula.

247 - Leaders of centrist parties believe that the launch of three pre-candidacies for the Presidency of the Republic by the PSD is nothing more than a tactical strategy by the party's national president, Gilberto Kassab. The prevailing interpretation is that there is no real willingness to support these names until the end of the electoral process, nor to support other right-wing candidacies, such as that of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). In this scenario, these parties are already discussing moves that could favor the victory of President Lula (PT) and, at the same time, strengthen their institutional position in a possible new government, reports [source name]. CNN Brazil.

The assessment was made by leaders of parties such as PP, União Brasil, and Republicanos. A senior leader of the group, when questioned about the possibility of supporting one of the three pre-candidates presented by the PSD — Eduardo Leite, Ronaldo Caiado, and Ratinho Jr. — responded ironically: "it would be easier to support Maduro." 

For these parties, the very act of launching three names simultaneously indicates weakness. The interpretation is that, in the end, the PSD may negotiate the withdrawal of the pre-candidacies in exchange for a position of formal neutrality, which, in practice, would tend to benefit Lula in the presidential race. The understanding is that the government prefers to face Flávio Bolsonaro in the second round rather than compete for votes with a competitive name from the center or the traditional right.

In this context, leaders of the Centrão (center-right bloc) do not see Kassab's announcement as a fait accompli. On the contrary, they believe that insisting on this strategy until the end could be costly for the PSD (Social Democratic Party), risking a reduction in its representation in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate in the next legislature. Furthermore, there would be regional constraints, especially in states where PSD candidates intend to support Lula, as in the case of Raquel Lyra in Pernambuco.

The prevailing interpretation is that Kassab's ultimate plan would be to withdraw the three names from the presidential race and direct them towards Senate candidacies, paving the way for final support for Lula. In light of this, the Centrão parties state that they intend to preempt this move, avoiding support for any presidential candidacy—both those associated with the PSD and that of Flávio Bolsonaro, seen internally as a name tied to the Bolsonaro agenda, from which these parties seek to distance themselves.

Therefore, the strategy devised involves formal neutrality. The idea is to allow state delegations to freely support different candidates, maximizing the chances of electing more representatives and senators. This stance is also based on the perception that Lula is currently the favorite in the presidential race, an assessment shared, according to sources, by the Planalto Palace itself, which advocates for the neutrality of the centrist bloc.

An informal alignment with Lula could guarantee, at a minimum, the maintenance or expansion of these parties' presence in the Esplanade of Ministries and support in key congressional races, such as the presidencies of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. The prevailing view is that, in the last decade, the center of gravity of political power in the country has shifted from the Executive to the Legislative branch, making it more strategic for parties to consolidate their strength in Congress than to invest in national candidates with little chance of winning.

This scenario, however, is not seen as immutable. Leaders of the centrist bloc admit that the equation could change if the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, were to accept running for the presidency. Internally, he is seen as the only name capable of unifying the bloc. Even so, there is a growing conviction among these parties that Tarcísio should prioritize his reelection bid in the state.