Bolsonaro and Maia escalate dispute over emergency aid.

Sputnik - Jair Bolsonaro and the Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, have begun a new power struggle in recent weeks over the extension of the emergency aid that the government has been providing to different groups of workers affected by the pandemic. While the congressman has been advocating for the extension of the measure for another three months, at the same value, the head of state claims that his economic team is only willing to pay two more installments of the aid and at a lower value than the R$ 600 that have been paid.

Last Saturday (20), as he had done on other occasions, Maia publicly expressed interest in extending the current aid for up to three months, at the current values, stating that his position would be supported by other deputies. On Monday (22), however, Bolsonaro once again ruled out this possibility, saying that the costs of maintaining it under these terms would be too high for the Union.

According to political scientist Geraldo Tadeu Monteiro, a professor at the State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), extending the R$600 aid payment "is absolutely imperative." In an interview with Sputnik Brasil, he states that, given the magnitude of the current economic crisis the country is facing, this aid is a matter of survival for a large segment of the population that does not have access to any other source of income.

"We are on the verge of a serious social crisis, a social upheaval, if this aid is not extended. We are not talking about an undue benefit; we are talking about income necessary for the survival of many families. We must remember that 40% of Brazil's population is employed in informal activities, which offer no guarantee of job security." 

The expert explains that, even with a gradual reopening of the economy, commerce, and services, things will still take time to return to normal.

"People who have income will direct those resources towards buying groceries and covering essential expenses. So, even with the reopening of businesses, it's unlikely that sales will increase. Many workers live purely on commission, without any kind of fixed salary on their pay slip. This means that without emergency aid, many people will simply go hungry." 

Monteiro believes that, in the current stage of another crisis also affecting Brazil—the political one—President Bolsonaro has little room for maneuver to engage in a power struggle with Congress. Even while citing financial difficulties, the federal government, according to the academic, "has ample economic policy means to absorb this impact."

"So, the federal government does have the resources, yes, it is capable of absorbing this expense. And the political cost of this dispute is largely unfavorable to the president, who will emerge, if he engages in this dispute, as the villain of the story," he opines.

The political scientist also points out that the approach of the pre-election period should also impact the position of the deputies regarding the aid, since many have direct or indirect interests in the municipal elections and would not like to see their popularity threatened by a decision that could harm millions of people.