Bolsonarism sinks after flopped rally on Paulista Avenue.

247 - The demonstration called by Jair Bolsonaro (PL) this Sunday (29), on Paulista Avenue, generated an internal crisis among his allies, attracting a significantly smaller audience than expected. The atmosphere behind the scenes of Bolsonarism resembles that of a wake, with mutual recriminations, accusations of betrayal and deepening of family and party disputes. According to a survey by the Political Debate Monitor of Cebrap, only 12,4 people attended the event — a number far lower than the 44,9 registered in April and the 185 who gathered in February 2023.

As This information comes from Folha de S.Paulo.The event, which heard from various interlocutors within the Bolsonaro camp, saw the absence of prominent figures, such as former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro and federal deputy Nikolas Ferreira (PL-MG), exacerbate existing tensions. Although both were considered certain to attend the event until the day before, they both justified their absences due to prior commitments. Michelle cited a PL Mulher (Women's PL) agenda in Roraima, while Nikolas stated he had been the best man at a cousin's wedding.

Cracks and mistrust

Among the former president's closest allies, distrust and the search for culprits have grown. Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), the former president's son who is currently in the United States, posted an enigmatic video on social media, stating that it was necessary to pay attention to "who attended, who didn't attend, what the speeches were like, and who is engaging in the debate."

"This is a great opportunity for you to learn, because it was a stage not only for a cry for freedom, but also an event that was undeniably political. So it's for you to follow politics closely, because those who don't heed 'be careful' will later hear 'poor thing'," Eduardo declared.

Behind the scenes, Eduardo and Michelle are engaged in a veiled dispute over Bolsonaro's nomination as his successor in 2026. Since the former president is ineligible due to a decision by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), choosing a new name to represent the group in the elections has become a source of family and strategic tension.

Fire friend

Criticism also targeted centrist figures orbiting Bolsonaro's ideology, such as the presidents of the PP party, Ciro Nogueira, and União Brasil, Antônio Rueda, both absent from the event. Their absence was interpreted by allies as a sign of distancing and opportunism. The presence of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), was not enough to appease the situation: his timid speech, limited to two "out with the PT" chants and without attacks on the Supreme Court, was seen as an attempt to distance himself from the most radical core of Bolsonaro's supporters.

Bolsonaro's allies also pointed out flaws in the event's publicity. Although Pastor Silas Malafaia, the organizer of the demonstration, promoted the event in advance, critics stated that pro-Bolsonaro influencers with a large reach on social media ignored the call. Some attribute this to internal rivalries and disputes over who gets the spotlight.

A member of the PL party, interviewed by Folha, revealed that many politicians didn't want to go to Paulista Avenue because they didn't have access to Bolsonaro's sound truck—a stage controlled by Malafaia and used as a showcase on social media. "If they're not going to appear alongside the boss, they prefer not to go at all," he summarized.

Moraes Effect

Two participants interviewed for this report attributed the low turnout at the event also to Bolsonaro's stance in his recent testimony to Minister Alexandre de Moraes of the Supreme Federal Court. On that occasion, the former president surprised his supporters by adopting a mild tone, referring to the protesters camped in front of the barracks as "crazy people." The gesture was interpreted as a breach of loyalty by the more radical base, which expected a symbolic confrontation against the Supreme Court and a defense of those imprisoned for involvement in the attempted coup of January 8th.

Despite this, people close to Bolsonaro downplayed the interpretation that the movement is in decline. According to this group, the low turnout was caused more by organizational errors than by a loss of popular support.

Folha's reporting team attempted to contact Ciro Nogueira, Antônio Rueda, and Michelle Bolsonaro, but received no response. Nikolas Ferreira did respond:

“I was the best man at my cousin's wedding; she lived with me throughout my childhood. The wedding had been planned for months. I haven't missed any other demonstrations. And with powerful speeches.”

Identity crisis

The fiasco of the event laid bare the dilemma facing Bolsonaro's supporters: without Bolsonaro on the ballot, lacking internal unity, and with leaders vying for power, the conservative camp is struggling to reorganize. The frustration with the small turnout and the absence of symbolic figures made it clear that the movement, once cohesive and combative, is now experiencing a phase of dispersion and uncertainty.

The question that hangs in the air is: who will lead Bolsonarism in 2026? For now, the only certainty is that last Sunday deepened the divisions and weakened the image of strength that the event intended to convey.