Proponents of the Senate presidency race claim victory and point out bluffs by their opponents.

Reuters - With less than a week to go before the Senate leadership election, negotiators for the main candidates vying for the presidency are working intensely on final arrangements, each side betting on its chances of victory based on vote estimates and the expectation of "betrayals" from those who promised support, since the vote is secret.

The numbers don't add up. While those involved in the reelection bid of the current Speaker of the House, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), estimate they have between 55 and 60 votes for the victory of the government's preferred candidate, allies of Rogério Marinho (PL-RN), former minister under former President Jair Bolsonaro, claim they already have enough support for a tie and foresee a favorable outcome based on political maneuvers next week.

"I understand that we are very close to victory," said Senator Carlos Portinho (PL-RJ), who was the leader of the Bolsonaro government in the Senate and is a supporter of Marinho's candidacy.

"A lot has changed this week. There's a favorable wind blowing for Marinho's candidacy, and the political maneuvering is intense here," he added.

According to the senator, the calculations by Pacheco's supporters are a "bluff." Marinho's candidacy has the declared support of the PP, PL, and Republicanos parties, totaling 23 votes, according to the parliamentarian, who also envisions support from members of other parties.

"So he would have to have all the others (votes) and in the case of 60, only if he had 83 senators," he said -- the Senate has 81 members.

Portinho also mentioned that next week there should be an announcement of support from other political parties.

Two sources closely following the negotiations, one on Pacheco's side and another whose position remains undisclosed, estimate that Marinho would not have more than 28 votes.

They refute the version presented by Marinho's allies --one of them even goes so far as to say that the chance of victory for the PL senator is nil-- and insist that it is the opponents who are bluffing.

"Marinho's people know how to use information to exert pressure," said the other source.

"It's just another narrative to disrupt the game," he assessed, considering that Marinho's group is working to discredit Senator Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), the main strategist behind Pacheco's candidacy.

In fact, Marinho's allies claim to hear complaints from colleagues who say there is dissatisfaction with Pacheco for not getting directly involved in the discussions, as his opponent has been doing.

The coordination delegated to Alcolumbre is hampered by the distribution of positions within the House, which, according to Portinho, has even swayed votes in favor of Marinho.

According to the previous government leader, Alcolumbre intends to once again preside over the House's Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ), an important body, and is eyeing the presidency of the Senate in 2025, leaving little room for alternation in the Senate's leadership. Alcolumbre has already presided over the House and was Pacheco's main campaign supporter in the last election.

"This displeases PSD, MDB, and many others, from what I've heard. They don't want a rigged game," said Portinho.

One of the sources consulted by Reuters, whose position was not disclosed, is suspicious of the attacks against Alcolumbre and believes that the former president of the House "is good at talking."

It also relies on the room for maneuver that the federal government has to negotiate support for Pacheco, since positions in the second and third tiers are still being filled.

The whole scenario could, however, change at the beginning of next week, when a dinner hosted by Marinho is scheduled to take place. The number of attendees may indicate the senator's true chances.

"If there are more than 32 votes present, declaring formal support, the situation for Pacheco could become complicated," said the source.

The election for the president of the Senate for the next two years will take place on February 1st. The winner is the candidate who, according to Senate tradition, receives 41 votes or more. The vote is secret and conducted using paper ballots.

Whoever emerges victorious will have the power to define the House's agenda, as well as to accept or reject requests to open Parliamentary Commissions of Inquiry (CPIs) or to impeach ministers of the Supreme Federal Court (STF).

He will also have the role of presiding over the National Congress, thus representing the branch of government in institutional matters, in addition to conducting joint votes for the analysis of presidential vetoes and budget projects, among other measures.

As head of the Senate, Pacheco sought a measured approach, avoiding major conflicts with the previous government. The senator, however, served as a buffer in the House against controversial issues championed by Bolsonaro, especially those related to social agendas. Furthermore, he was a consistent defender of the reliability of electronic voting machines and the integrity of the electoral process, which were frequently attacked by the now former president.

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