Allies are already calculating the timeframe for Bolsonaro's arrest.
Allies of the former president believe he will be arrested in December. The strategy of Bolsonaro's inner circle is to reinforce the narrative of persecution.
247 - Allies of Jair Bolsonaro are already working with a date for his conviction in the investigation into an alleged coup attempt aimed at remaining in power after his defeat to Luís Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the 2022 presidential elections. With the trial expected to last until the end of November, those close to Bolsonaro anticipate the arrest will occur in mid-December, just before Christmas, as highlighted by journalist Lauro Jardim in his column in the newspaper. The Globe.
Given this scenario, the allies' strategy will be to insist on the argument that Bolsonaro is a victim of "persecution" by the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and that he did not authorize the attempt at institutional rupture. The objective is to keep the base mobilized and increase participation in the event called for March 16, which should serve as a demonstration of political strength and reinforce the discourse that the former president is being targeted by a political trial.
With the progress of the investigations and the testimonies indicating Bolsonaro's direct involvement in the coup plots, the legal net is closing in on him. The former president's defense, in turn, seeks to delay the proceedings with appeals and attempts to legally challenge the evidence presented.
Meanwhile, allies are trying to maintain the narrative that Bolsonaro still has enough influence to react to a possible arrest, mobilizing his base against the Judiciary and the Lula government. The practical outcome of this strategy, however, remains uncertain, especially after the results of the municipal elections, which demonstrated a decline in the radical right and a weakening of the mobilization capacity of Bolsonarism.
Behind the scenes, there is also an assessment that Bolsonaro's arrest could trigger new disputes within the far right, with figures such as Michelle Bolsonaro and the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), gaining prominence in the succession of the former president.
