Petrobras can lead the transition to clean energy.

247 - Petrobras could play a central role in Brazil's energy transition, according to studies by researchers at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) and the Climate Observatory (OC). g1However, analyses suggest that the state-owned company needs to increase investments in new technologies and diversify its portfolio, reducing its current heavy dependence on oil.

According to reports, insisting on expanding exploration in areas such as the Equatorial Margin and the Pelotas Basin (RS) could generate economic risks, creating so-called "stranded assets," projects with no return in the face of the decline in global consumption of fossil fuels.

The oil dilemma and global risks.

Professor Helder Queiroz, from the Institute of Economics at UFRJ, highlighted that oil will continue to be necessary, but requires caution. “We will still be living with the need to explore for oil for quite some time. It is a finite resource with a volatile price, and to guarantee self-sufficiency and the maintenance of reserves, exploration will continue to be necessary,” he stated.

He also stressed the importance of looking at the demand side. "The dilemma lies in how to deal with the different derivatives and their possibilities for substitution, as well as in the policies that allow for the progressive reduction of each of them," he added.

Petrobras in the face of the energy transition.

Although major global oil companies, such as BP, have reduced investments in renewables, Petrobras has competitive advantages, especially due to its accumulated experience in biofuels and new technologies.

Among the paths indicated by the studies are the expansion of second and third generation biofuels, investing in low-carbon hydrogen, betting on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and resuming energy distribution with a focus on electric vehicles.

Reducing emissions and aligning with the Paris Agreement

Suely Araújo, coordinator of Public Policies at the Climate Observatory, advocated for structural changes. "The Climate Observatory's demand is that oil progressively lose importance in Petrobras' portfolio, opening space for the company to advance in other energy areas," she said.

Data indicates that 85,2% of the state-owned company's emissions between 2015 and 2022 came from burning fuels, equivalent to 421 million tons of CO₂ in 2022 — more than all the emissions of the United Kingdom in the same period.

The future of the company

Carlos Eduardo Young, also a professor at UFRJ, reinforced the need to accelerate investments. "It is necessary to increase investment in energy transition and also in mitigation," he emphasized.

Experts argue that Petrobras should align its strategy with the Paris Agreement, contributing to Brazil achieving a 59% to 67% reduction in emissions by 2035 and carbon neutrality by 2050. 

Petrobras highlights investments 

Petrobras highlighted, in a note this Wednesday (17), that it has been increasing its investments in energy transition. In the 2025-29 Plan, US$ 16,3 billion is allocated to low-carbon projects, representing a growth of 42% compared to the previous Strategic Plan and 15% of total CAPEX, to be invested in the decarbonization of operations, product diversification and R&D for low-carbon initiatives.

The company invests heavily in innovative technologies with the potential for short, medium, and long-term impact. Total investments of US$1 billion are planned for low-carbon R&D (Research, Development, and Innovation) over the next five years, starting at 15% of total R&D in 2025 and reaching 30% in 2029. 

Petrobras has designed a diversified portfolio prepared for the energy transition routes, allocating US$5,7 billion to low-carbon energies, including wind and solar photovoltaic energy, hydrogen, and CCUS. Investment in bioproducts, as foreseen in the Business Plan, reaches US$4,3 billion, distributed as follows: US$2,2 billion for ethanol, US$1,5 billion for biorefining, and US$0,6 billion for biodiesel and biomethane. 

To meet its commitments and challenges, Petrobras has a CAPEX of US$5,3 billion in the 2025-2029 PN horizon for the decarbonization of its operations, with US$1,3 billion allocated over the next 5 years to a Decarbonization Fund dedicated to leveraging the implementation of decarbonization opportunities in its businesses. The fund is part of the carbon-neutral program strategy, a cross-cutting initiative involving all areas of the company's business. The objective is to identify opportunities for GHG mitigation across its different areas of operation, using the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) methodology to map the most cost-effective opportunities. 

Between 2015 and 2024, Petrobras reduced its absolute GHG emissions by 40% – from 78 million tCO2e to 47 million tCO2e, equivalent to three times the Brazilian aviation sector. We highlight the 70% reduction in methane emissions and the implementation of energy efficiency practices, modernizing facilities and processes in the most cost-effective way.  

Biorefining integrates the current operation of refineries with advanced biofuel production solutions. The strategy foresees adaptations to the refining park (co-processing of biomass with petroleum in existing refineries) and new units capable of transforming biomass into high value-added and 100% renewable products (Sustainable Aviation Fuel and Hydrotreated Vegetable Oils). 

Petrobras' 2025-2029 Business Plan investment portfolio includes the construction, at the Presidente Bernardes Refinery (RPBC) in Cubatão (SP), of a unit for the production of HVO (Renewable Diesel) and SBC (synthetic blending component for SAF production) via the HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) route, with a processing capacity of approximately 950 tons of raw material, generating a production potential of up to 16 bpd of renewable products, and becoming operational in 2029. 

Petrobras also plans to operate in the production of low-carbon hydrogen and its derivatives, focusing on the decarbonization of operations, products, and business development to meet market demand. In the 2025-2029 Business Plan, we have allocated US$0,5 billion in investments to hydrogen projects.

In this regard, a research and development project focused on the production of low-carbon hydrogen through water electrolysis, integrated with oil refining processes, is under evaluation. It is initially planned to be installed in a refinery in the Southeast region of Brazil. This is a pilot plant aimed at validating hydrogen production through electrolysis operating in conjunction with already established refining processes. The initiative is pioneering in Brazil. 

Petrobras believes that sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) can be a practical and immediate solution to reduce emissions from the aviation sector, directly replacing conventional kerosene without the need for modifications to aircraft or refueling infrastructure. Recently, tests were carried out at the Henrique Lage Refinery (Revap) in São José dos Campos (SP) for the production of SAF from the co-processing of vegetable oil mixed with aviation kerosene (QAV). The vegetable oil content in the product reached 1,2%, a fundamental milestone in the production of more sustainable aviation fuels.