“Democracies around the world have increasingly elected climate change deniers,” warns Carlos Nobre

Beatriz Bevilaqua, 247 - Climatologist Carlos Nobre, one of the world's leading experts on climate change, issues a stark warning: "The world's democracies are increasingly electing populist and climate change denialist politicians, and this represents an enormous risk for the planet."

The statement echoes as a grave warning on the eve of COP30, which will be held in 2025 in Belém do Pará. For Nobre, this will be the most important meeting in the history of climate conferences and perhaps the last great chance to prevent the planet from crossing the point of no return.

A graduate of the Technological Institute of Aeronautics (ITA) and with a doctorate from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Carlos Nobre was a researcher at the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) and is currently co-chair of the Scientific Panel for the Amazon and a professor at the Institute for Advanced Studies at the University of São Paulo (USP). In an interview with the program Brasil Sustentável, he reflects on half a century of research and scientific activism, the future of the Amazon, and the urgency of a global energy transition.

From the beginning of his career, Nobre has dedicated himself to the Amazon rainforest, a passion that began in 1971 when he was still a student at ITA (Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica). "Back then, the Amazon was practically untouched. Today, it's on the verge of a point of no return," he says.

According to his research, the entire southern Amazon region is already experiencing dry seasons up to five weeks longer and 2 to 3°C warmer than 40 years ago. If deforestation exceeds 20% to 25% of the original coverage and global warming reaches 2°C, the biome could collapse: "Between 30% and 70% of the forest could be irreversibly degraded by 2050," says the scientist.

This transformation would release more than 250 billion tons of carbon, jeopardizing any attempt to limit global warming to 1,5°C, the goal of the Paris Agreement. "The Amazon is one of the planet's major points of no return. If it collapses, we enter a cycle of self-degradation that could last for millennia," he warns.

Energy transition is urgent in the world.

The researcher points out that 7 million people die each year due to urban pollution, a direct result of burning fossil fuels. "In Greater São Paulo, the diesel used in buses and trucks reduces life expectancy by two to four years," says Nobre, citing studies by physician Paulo Saldiva of USP (University of São Paulo).

Beyond the cities, the fires in the Amazon, Cerrado, and Pantanal also severely affect public health: "The fire generates microparticles of carbon that cause illness and death. In the Amazon alone, more than 150 people are hospitalized annually for respiratory illnesses linked to pollution."

Recently, Nobre was in China and said he was "impressed" by the speed of the energy transformation. "In eight days, I took twenty ride-sharing cars, eighteen of which were electric," he reports. "The cities are tree-lined, full of bike paths and electric motorcycles. The air quality has improved immensely."

According to the scientist, China is an example of how public policies can reverse decades of pollution. "Thirty years ago, Beijing was one of the most polluted cities in the world. Today, life expectancy has started to increase again, thanks to the elimination of coal-fired power plants within urban areas and forest restoration in more than 100 major cities."

However, the country still faces the challenge of relying heavily on coal, with about 75% of Chinese energy coming from fossil fuels. Even so, Nobre sees a promising path: “China can lead the global energy transition. What is lacking is the same commitment in Western democracies.”

"How can the country with the most science in the world elect a climate change denier?"

The paradox that most shocks the scientist is the case of the United States. "It's the country that produces the most science on the planet, where the best climate research centers are located. How can a nation with so much scientific information elect a president who is a climate change denier?" he asks.

“More than 66% of Americans believe in climate change, yet they still elected a climate change denier. This is a phenomenon that is repeating itself in several democracies, including Brazil under the previous government and Argentina under the current government. This shows that populism and denialism go hand in hand and jeopardize the future of civilization,” he warns.

For Nobre, denialism is not just an opinion: it is a civilizational threat. "We must overcome ideologies and reject candidates who deny science. The planet can no longer tolerate regression."

Brazil could reach net-zero emissions by 2040.

The researcher believes that Brazil can play a historic role in the global transition to a green economy. "We have clean energy, forestry potential, and technology. The country can achieve net-zero emissions by 2040 and be the first major emitter in the world to reach zero emissions," he states.

This proposal is at the heart of the new report “Brazil Net Zero,” which will be released in November by the Brazilian Academy of Sciences (ABC) and of which Nobre is one of the coordinators. Watch the full interview and set a reminder for the release of the “Brazil Net Zero” study: https://www.youtube.com/live/psqonQ6Mmq4?si=C_rPhcKoss1-FDQ2

At the end of the interview, Nobre proposes a symbolic but powerful gesture: reforesting the cities. “São Paulo has become a heat island. In neighborhoods without trees, the temperature is up to 10 degrees higher than in wooded areas. This exacerbates inequalities and makes the population sick. It is essential that everyone plants trees.”

Looking back on his childhood, he concludes with a touch of affection: “When I was a boy, all the houses had backyards, trees, jaboticaba trees. We need to recover this relationship with nature in cities and on the planet. It’s a matter of survival.”

Watch the full interview here: