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Marcelo Zero

He is a sociologist, specialist in International Relations, and advisor to the PT leadership in the Senate.

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Zelensky went looking for weapons, but Biden spoke of peace.

'Without securing strategic objectives, Russia will not withdraw from Ukraine, but the path forward is to invest in peace, not war,' writes columnist Marcelo Zero.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (left) and US President Joe Biden at the White House in Washington (USA) (Photo: REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque)

In addition to welcoming Zelensky to the White House and the US Congress in a media spectacle designed to demonstrate full support, the US will also provide him with an additional $45 billion in aid to continue the war.

Of that total, $20 billion will go toward the purchase of armaments and $6,2 billion will be allocated to increasing the presence of U.S. military forces in Eastern Europe. 

In addition, Biden will announce immediate aid of $1,8 billion to equip Ukraine with Patriot missiles, the most advanced land-based anti-aircraft defense system.

With this new multi-billion dollar package, the US has now provided over US$100 billion in aid to Ukraine since the beginning of the war. A large portion of this money goes towards fueling the senseless military fire of the conflict. A conflict that could have been resolved in May of this year, were it not for the US opposition to the terms of the preliminary peace agreement.

Although about two-thirds of Americans support this aid, Around half believe that the US should pressure Zelensky to negotiate peace as soon as possible. 

The number of those who desire peace is growing in the US and around the world. War is losing popularity. 

No wonder.

Besides harming the entire world economy, causing increased hunger, and exacerbating the energy crisis, war, with its associated draconian sanctions, will have no conventional military solution. Thus, many, especially in Europe, but also in the US, are wondering if it is worthwhile to continue supporting a useless and extravagant war effort, to the detriment of the interests of vast segments of the world's population and in the face of the real danger of its nuclearization.

It should be noted, in this regard, that the idea that Ukraine is winning the war, touted by the Western media, is mistaken. Ukraine has no chance whatsoever of winning this war, although Russia's recent tactical retreat may have given that false impression. Even Biden doesn't truly believe this, despite his inflammatory rhetoric to the contrary.

Russia has so far used less than 20% of its military resources in the conflict. It has a reserve of 1,2 million troops at its disposal, while Ukraine has only 200 soldiers deployed. Furthermore, Russia has not yet used its advanced conventional weapons, such as supersonic missiles and strategic bombers. 

Only the US and NATO would be able to militarily confront Russia, but this would imply the expansion and perpetuation of the conflict, and even the serious risk of nuclear war. Neither Europe nor the US wants a war with Russia.

Irresponsibly, Zelensky's Ukraine has been flirting with the possibility of escalation. The potential use of a radioactive "dirty bomb," easy to build, could lead to an extremely dangerous escalation. The recent attempt to strike Russian military bases housing strategic bombers with nuclear weapons also fits into this strategy of trying to expand and intensify the conflict. 

Therefore, Zelensky is pushing for offensive weapons, notably long-range missiles, which the US, as Biden emphasized in the interview, will never provide.

To complicate matters, Russia's anticipated winter offensive is expected to consolidate Russian positions in southern and eastern Ukraine and render the country's infrastructure inoperable. Even today, Russian bombing raids in Ukraine have already compromised the power supply in Kyiv. This winter, the capital is expected to have, at most, 5 hours of power per day. 

In this context, the offensive, if successful, could provide Russia with a more solid basis for negotiating a favorable peace, something Biden wants to avoid. He obviously wants any eventual peace negotiations to be based on Ukraine's current or even improved military positions. The new supply of defensive weapons to Ukraine is basically for that purpose; not to "win" the war. But, in any case, Biden now admits to wanting peace. 

Indeed, although the US still maintains, broadly speaking, its offensive strategy of cornering Russia and ultimately provoking regime change in Moscow, the high cost of war, its growing unpopularity, and the danger of its geographical and geopolitical spillover are prompting Washington to admit it is seeking... "a just peace" "For Ukraine," as Biden said, very significantly, at the meeting in the White House and at the press conference hours later. 

Zelensky, visibly reluctantly, agreed.

In this way, Zelensky, who sought weapons in the US and who didn't talk much about peace, may return to his country urged to admit to opening negotiation channels with Moscow at the opportune moment, something that the NATO alliance wants to see realized. It remains to be seen, however, what a "just peace" would entail in this context. 

Certainly, as Biden said in the interview, Russia will not simply withdraw from Ukraine without securing basic strategic objectives. The distance between the positions of Moscow and Kiev is, obviously, very large. Any negotiations will be arduous and complicated.

But this is the only reasonable path for everyone involved and for the world. Invest in peace, not war.

After all, as Benjamin Franklin said, there never was a good war or a bad peace. 

* This is an opinion article, the responsibility of the author, and does not reflect the opinion of Brasil 247.