Xandão supports Tarcísio; but Tarcísio will shut down the STF... [1]

Xandão supports Tarcísio; but Tarcísio will shut down the STF... [1]

The dilemma everyone faces:

1) It was strange to everyone that, during Tarcísio de Freitas's testimony to the Supreme Federal Court on May 24th, Minister Alexandre de Moraes acted with complete cordiality and restraint in the face of the numerous absurdities committed by the governor of São Paulo;

2) With scenes of enormous similarity, the day before [23] in the same STF, Xandão was extremely rude to the former president of the Chamber of Deputies, Aldo Rebelo, who also in testimony provided several absurd statements in the style of Tarcísio;

3) A little darling with one; a big tiger with another! Of course, the "grapevine" will remind everyone that: a) Alexandre has his political origins in the PSDB; b) the PSDB is the original party arm of neoliberalism, therefore, the "garden gnomes" of Faria Lima; c) Faria Lima wants the puppet Tarcísio as President of the Republic to implement privatizations and the dismantling of the State in Brazil, just as it has been perfectly exemplified in the governance of São Paulo; d) it's not wrong to think that Moraes would be more sympathetic to seeing a President of the Republic from his political camp elected than a left-wing candidate;

4) Alexandre arrived at the Supreme Court nominated by Michel Temer, who in 2016 removed Dilma Rousseff from the Presidency of the Republic after a parliamentary-judicial-media coup;

5) Xandão was the savior of the Republic from a new coup, this time the attempt made by Bolsonaro and his cronies in 2022/2023;

6) Moraes knows that the fear of a coup still haunts Brazil because Bolsonarism is very much alive in society, and that the far right is ruthless;

7) Bolsonarism is already considering the possibility of launching a strong candidate who has the potential to defeat Lula in 2026; however, the condition for "lending" a third of Brazil's voters to any candidate [other than the captain], according to Flávio Bolsonaro's interview with Folha de S. Paulo on June 14th, is that this candidate be "manly" enough to shut down the Supreme Court if the pardon for his father is not "constitutionalized";

8) A pardon for Bolsonaro would be to tear up the Federal Constitution once and for all and to (almost) permanently demoralize the institutions of the Republic;

9) Tarcísio, if he truly wants to be the candidate of the plutocracy [Faria Lima], and of the other oligarchies [like the Globo magnates, for example], with any chance of defeating Lula, who has secured the other third of Brazilian voters, will have to agree to conditions with Bolsonaro's fascism;

(It's worth remembering that Globo and almost all traditional media outlets were heavily attacked by Bolsonaro supporters between 2019 and 2022; and this could happen again if a candidate with support from this group wins).

10) On the other hand, it is difficult to predict that these sides will converge, given that: a) Bolsonaro only trusts himself and, to a little extent, his sons. Therefore, a candidate of the "Myth" to actually fulfill this pardon and shut down the Supreme Court that would declare the pardon unconstitutional (and persecute other dissenters), would have to be someone from the clan; and b) the sons of the oligarchy are those who are in the tentacles of the State, that is, those who occupy the institutions of power of the Republic, as is the case of Xandão (for example, among others), and these do not want the smoke of Bolsonarism fueling a new coup attempt at the risk of losing their privileges [considering also that, from time to time, they also defend democracy];

11) Therefore, everyone's dilemma boils down to this: a) how will Moraes and other members of the state and business oligarchy support Tarcísio if Tarcísio is a creation of Bolsonarism and serves it as a faithful member of a sect?; b) how will Bolsonaro support Tarcísio if Tarcísio constantly pretends to flirt with Xandão and others from the oligarchy resentful of Bolsonarism?; and c) how will Tarcísio manage to prove simultaneous loyalty to these groups that detest each other… more than that: are like oil and water in the sharing of benefits, perks, resources, and privileges that the rigged State can offer?

12) In summary: to gather enough votes [for Tarcísio] in order to defeat the left, only one condition is possible: a temporary pact between “hyenas” and “leopards”; however, once victorious, the fratricidal fight between these two “beasts” for the spoils of the State will be devastating.

I confess I can't imagine who Tarcísio's first real victim of betrayal would be. He'll have to betray someone to survive…

………….

[1] It is crucial to state that this article title contains both a fallacy and a logical proposition. The fallacy is that, functionally, a member of the STF cannot "become partisan," that is, publicly support a candidate. The logical proposition is that, implicitly, a member of the STF works for an ideology and creates a favorable political environment for a certain structuring vision to be determined, even if only temporarily, in society.