Linking Lula to Maduro and calling for American electoral interference could be counterproductive for the opposition.

Strategies linking Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to Nicolás Maduro and advocating for US President Donald Trump to interfere in Brazilian elections—through diplomatic or political pressure—may prove counterproductive for the opposition, according to international analysts at Eurasia Group, which serves large corporations, executives, and investors.

Despite declaring that the military attacks on Venezuela and the kidnapping of its president recalled "the worst moments of interference in Latin American politics," Lula did not recognize Maduro's victory, as there was no proof of the election results. Furthermore, most Brazilians perceived the sanctions and tariffs imposed by Trump as an affront to national sovereignty. Thus, any attempt by Washington to interfere in this year's elections could provoke a similar reaction.

According to Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia, Trump's foreign policy oscillates between the logics of FAFO ("Fuck Around and Find Out") and TACO ("Trump Always Chickens Out"). Countries that challenge Washington and demonstrate weakness would fall under FAFO, such as Canada and Venezuela, which has once again been treated as an American sphere of influence. By treating Europe as FAFO, Trump suggested that the price of the continent's security would be the sale of Greenland to the United States without resistance. "Russia and China will have no fear of a NATO without the US. The only nation that China and Russia fear and respect is the US rebuilt by Donald Trump," he stated on his social media, without ruling out an American military occupation of Danish territory. Countries like China, Russia, and Brazil would fall under TACO, due to the high cost of retaliation for the US, according to Bremmer.

BRAZIL AND BRAZILIANS - In this sense, President Lula resumed his 2026 agenda with an event commemorating January 8th, which he described as "the day of democracy's victory." As expected, he vetoed the reduction of sentences for Jair Bolsonaro, whose objective would have been to maintain the former president's ineligibility, even under house arrest. The absence of the heads of the Legislative and Judicial branches at the event gave Lula the symbolic possession of the democratic flag, which should be carried alongside the national flag at the start of the election year. According to the most recent polls, the so-called "Dosimetry Bill" faces majority rejection: 47% in Quaest and 63% in AtlasIntel.

The approval of the Mercosur-European Union agreement may lessen resistance in the center and in productive sectors, according to political scientist Josué Medeiros, from UFRJ and coordinator of the Political and Electoral Observatory (OPEL). In an analysis for InfoMoney, Medeiros states that the agreement acts as a "vaccine" against discourses that the left does not value the market economy, business, and trade integration. "In practice, it becomes a stamp of credibility to counter this framing," assesses the expert. The agreement will create the world's largest free trade area, involving approximately 700 million people and an estimated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of US$ 22 trillion, demarcating the geopolitical space of multilateralism.

Subsequently, Lula is expected to lead the debate on ending the 6x1 work schedule and other issues with the potential to counter rhetoric of "regime change," while simultaneously advancing win-win agreements with Trump. Distinct rhetoric, common interests: cooperation and regional stability. After all, the Workers' Party candidate will be running for reelection in October. The Republican, as he himself acknowledges, could face impeachment proceedings if he loses his majority in Congress to the Democrats in the midterm elections in November.

In the end, the attempt to internationalize the Brazilian electoral contest through external tutelage tends to produce the opposite effect to that intended. By associating Lula with Maduro and flirting with the idea of ​​American interference, the opposition shifts the debate from the field of governance and economics to the terrain of sovereignty—a space favorable to the president. Instead of weakening him, it reinforces his position as guarantor of democracy, multilateralism, and Brazil's independence in a world in transition.