Winning in the first round: the challenges of the final stretch of the campaign.

There is a wave in favor of ending the presidential elections in the first round. Many artists, athletes, and celebrities, who initially wouldn't have voted for Lula, have joined the "vote-switching" campaign, recognizing Bolsonaro's neo-fascist threat and unwilling to add another four weeks of institutional tension to the country. Polls reflect this sentiment, with Lula showing slight growth, which may be enough for a first-round victory. 

We know that Bolsonarism won't end in October, regardless of the result on the 02nd. It has always existed in society: they are heirs to colonial Brazil, the monarchy, slavery, the military dictatorship, and everything that is backward in Brazil. The difference is that during the 90s/2000s the classic right/PSDB ("moderate") politically hegemonic conservatives, and there was no room for further institutional rupture, beyond the limits built with the 2016 judicial-parliamentary coup. To defeat Bolsonarism, we will need to advance popular organization in the coming period. Defeating Bolsonaro in the first round is fundamental to achieving this goal. 

Bolsonaro's strategy, upon losing, is to create a feeling among his base (at least) and in society that there was electoral fraud, in order to unite his followers and continue dominating the right wing, becoming an electoral alternative in 4 years. This is the basic premise. He will use isolated/specific problems or a lot of lies in the form of videos to delegitimize the election. "If the climate is right," he will attempt a coup. 

Winning in the first round makes institutional rupture more difficult, as the questioning would target the entire electoral process, including the election of deputies and senators, and not just the presidential election. It will be more difficult for Bolsonaro to gain support among his own supporters and in society. Furthermore, it allows Lula to avoid programmatic agreements with other candidates to increase his vote, ensuring the programmatic lines presented in the first round prevail. Additionally, there will be more time to assemble the transitional government.  

Currently, the best polling indicates 52% of valid votes for Lula. However, these polls do not measure the abstention rate. Since 2006, these rates have increased, reaching their highest levels in 2018. In summary, the factors are threefold: distrust in the political system; a symbolic fine of less than R$4,00; and an increase in the number of people living in a different state from their electoral domicile. However, political tension may help to stem this increase in abstention, as people participate more in a "polarized" political environment. 

Looking at 2018 and other elections, it is noticeable that abstention is higher among lower-income people, a group in which Bolsonaro is easily defeated in the first round. Thus, some of the voting intentions may not be confirmed at the polls due to higher abstentions for the candidate from the democratic-popular field. 

With 2 days left until the elections, we have three remaining options: 1 – encourage those who will vote for Lula in the first round to go to the polls; 2 – work with those considered "undecided" by the polls; 3 – promote strategic voting for Lula. 

Currently, candidates outside the Lula vs. Bolsonaro axis are polling around 13-15%. Engaging in political and programmatic debate with these individuals, regarding the importance of winning in the first round, will create better conditions for victory. If Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet maintain 8% and 5% respectively, we will likely not win in the first round. 

We have 2 days! Some days are worth years! It's time to roll up our sleeves and talk to everyone around us; a massive vote-swapping campaign is the best thing we can do in this short period.