Final nail in the coffin: nearly 70% condemn Bolsonaro's betrayal of the nation.

Originally published in The Coffee

Eduardo Bolsonaro's actions in the United States have destroyed popular support for his father. Perhaps this—more than his conviction and imprisonment—is the final nail in the political coffin for the former president's family.

According to the Genial/Quaest survey released today, 69% of Brazilian voters believe that their actions in the United States are aimed solely at defending their own interests.

In other words, more than two-thirds of Brazilians consider him a traitor to the nation.

Only 23% support him. 8% didn't know or didn't want to answer.

The current moment confirms what other polls have already been indicating: Lula has maintained a solid upward trend in his approval rating, which has now reached 46%, six points higher than at his lowest point in May. In that month, he registered 57% disapproval against 40% approval – a difference of 17 points or, as they say in the United States, "underwater".

Since then, his disapproval rating has been falling and his approval rating rising: today he has a 51% disapproval rating against a 46% approval rating, being only 5 points "underwater," an improvement of 12 points compared to the critical period.

This recovery is evident in various segments: women and men (with men registering a 5-point increase), across different age groups, secondary and primary education levels, and stability among those with higher education.

The improvement was particularly pronounced among the lower classes, as will be detailed later.

The impact of betrayal on the electorate.

These figures show a massive defeat for the entire Brazilian right wing. This is because the right wing is fatally linked to Bolsonaro's ideology. No matter how much one sector or another wants to distance itself from Bolsonaro, it's no use. When people talk about the right wing in Brazil today, they think of Bolsonaro. That's how it is in the minds of the people.

So, if the overwhelming majority of the electorate believes that the Bolsonaro family betrayed the nation, this fatally taints the reputation of the right wing in the country.

The stratified data from the responses about Eduardo reflect the profound impact of his betrayal on the prestige of the conservative camp.

According to Quaest, 69% of voters believe that Eduardo Bolsonaro is betraying his country in the name of petty personal interests, such as freeing his father from prison.

The division of the Brazilian electorate

The Quaest survey reveals a politically balanced society: 33% identify with the left (19% Lula supporters and 14% non-Lula leftists), 30% have no defined political position, and 33% position themselves on the right (20% non-Bolsonaro rightists and 13% Bolsonaro supporters). This balance makes the center – the 30% without a position – the deciding factor in electoral disputes.

Some analysts, such as Felipe Nunes, CEO of Quaest, have emphasized the concept of "calcification" of the Brazilian electorate – political positions that become so crystallized that it would be very difficult for them to change. However, this same research demonstrates that such calcification is relative and intrinsically linked to the daily events of the political situation. Furthermore, it does not manifest itself uniformly across all social strata, with some segments more receptive to changes of opinion than others.

Eduardo Bolsonaro's isolation

When we stratify the responses about Eduardo Bolsonaro by these political groups, the isolation becomes even more evident. In the center, only 12% defend Eduardo's actions in the US, while 78% consider them selfish and unpatriotic, and 10% did not know how to answer.

On the non-Bolsonaro right, 52% do not support his initiatives. Even more striking: within Bolsonaro's own base, 35% question his motivations (29% believe he defends his own interests and 6% did not know how to answer).

On the left, as expected, more than 90% consider him a traitor to the nation.

Trump's image in Brazil

Trump's image in Brazil also reflects this deterioration. When asked if the former US president is right to impose tariffs because he believes Bolsonaro is being persecuted, 80% of those in the center consider the measure wrong – a number that has increased from 77% in July.

Among the non-Bolsonaro right wing itself, 48% disagree with Trump. Even among Bolsonaro supporters there is division: 36% think Trump is wrong versus 54% who support him. Eduardo's ability to mobilize narratives on social media managed to partially reverse this rejection among his base – in July, 48% of Bolsonaro supporters criticized Trump – but it was not enough to reverse the overall situation.

Trump's approval rating drops sharply in the US.

The popularity of the current president of the United States among the American electorate is also showing signs of deterioration. latest Reuters/Ipsos poll His approval rating has steadily declined since the start of his term in February. Starting at 47%, the numbers have been gradually falling and are now at a historic low of 40% – one of the worst approval ratings for an American president at this stage of his term. In less than 300 days in office – a period in which Lula maintained over 60% approval in Brazil, according to Quaest – the Republican has already lost 7 percentage points.

The trend in this approval rating is not encouraging, as it is based on a destabilization of American economic fundamentals. In the United States, as in Brazil, food inflation is a determining factor in government approval. While food prices are falling in Brazil, they continue to rise in the United States. Furthermore, the same Pew Research Center reveals that 61% of Americans reject the tariffs imposed by the government, with widespread disapproval of almost all implemented public policies. The President of the United States is only avoiding worse numbers due to the solidification of the American electorate and strong Republican loyalty, but even so, he is losing the political center – a movement opposite to that observed with Lula in Brazil.

The political center pushed to the left.

Just as happened in 2022, Bolsonaro's radicalization has once again caused revulsion in the center.

Despite the massive propaganda from Bolsonaro's supporters, who labeled Lula's government as a "communist," radical regime close to Venezuela and Cuba, the Workers' Party administration is seen as a force containing Bolsonaro's extremism.

This centrist segment is drawn to Lula's government positions in search of balance, rationality, and moderation. It's a phenomenon that repeats itself whenever Bolsonarism crosses certain red lines. The new anti-patriotic and anti-economic follies of the Bolsonaro family helped forge the new broad front for 2026.

According to the Quaest poll, the president has gained nine points since May among centrist voters, reaching 42%, his best score of the year among this segment. Another indication of this movement is the improvement among voters who abstained in 2022, where he reached 39%, also his best mark since the beginning of the year.

Lula's recovery among the popular classes.

Research shows a very strong recovery for Lula among the working class, with family incomes up to two minimum wages.

The president's approval rating has risen 10 points since the last poll in July, jumping from 46% to 55%. Disapproval has plummeted to 40%.

Lula's main problem lay precisely with this poorest segment of the population. The sharp drop in the prices of basic foodstuffs, therefore, would be the best explanation for the increase in his approval rating. Beans fell 22% and rice 19% in the accumulated 12 months, according to IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). These are central products on the table of low-income Brazilians. In the middle classes, Lula has maintained stability throughout the year, with a negative fluctuation in March, and recovery since May.

The Quaest survey, with interviews conducted between August 13 and 17, indicates that the Bolsonaro family has once again lost some of the center support. In a country where whoever wins the 30% who are "without a political stance!" wins elections, Eduardo Bolsonaro has managed the feat of pushing most of this group towards Lula.

The former president and his sons transformed the defense of the homeland into a banner for the non-Bolsonaro left and center. It's a historical irony that few analysts managed to foresee: those who presented themselves as fanatical patriots ended up being seen by most Brazilians as traitors to the nation they swore to defend.

Download here The full Quaest research report.