Everything has changed

By Valerio Arcary

(article originally published on the website) the earth is round)

Brazil and the world are in a state of maximum emergency caused by a pandemic that has no parallel with anything we have ever experienced. We are in a context very similar to that of a world war. Many will die, but what we don't know is the scale. It is impossible to predict, for now, the consequences of this catastrophe. But they will be devastating. They will be economic, social, and political.

Science tells us that the two central references we must consider are the speed and volume of people infected, and the case fatality rate. Gaining time has become a central priority, which is only possible with total quarantine. The inevitable contraction of the world economy cannot be the central concern of states. Governments that oppose, or even hesitate to take, drastic measures now will be doomed.

Many millions of people, thankfully, are already under home confinement. The core of the political struggle is saving lives, which is only possible when everyone can protect themselves in their homes with the conditions for their survival guaranteed by the State. The situation has changed, everything has changed abruptly in the last two weeks.

Many countries are already under total quarantine. In Brazil, the measures taken so far are dramatically insufficient because the federal government has not clearly positioned itself in favor of an immediate total quarantine, a sine qua non, or irreplaceable, condition to curb contagion and buy time—the only strategy that has proven effective in saving lives. In Brazil's case, millions of lives. We cannot falter. But Bolsonaro is a monster. His incompetence is absurd. Therefore, we must prepare for the worst-case scenario.

Pandemic experts are categorical: without exceptional, radical, inflexible measures of total quarantine, with the exception of strictly defined essential services, we will be facing a cataclysm of tens of millions of deaths on a global scale within a few weeks.

The new situation resulted from a brutal external shock. The political balance of power had been evolving unfavorably, quantitatively, for the government since January. This crisis led to the dismissal of the Secretary of Culture, Renato Alvim; a crisis stemming from the existence of two million stalled cases at the INSS (National Institute of Social Security); a crisis due to the blocking of one million families from entering the Bolsa Família program; disregard for the floods and mass deaths in the Southeast; delays in the legalization of the president's party, the Alliance; disastrous international repercussions of the invasions of indigenous reserves; criticism of Bolsonaro during Carnival parades; and ruptures with his former allies: PSL, Wilson Witzel, João Doria, Alexandre Frota, MBL, Joyce Hasserlmann, General Santos Cruz, and now Janaína Paschoal. All of this was impacting the perception of the working class and the middle class, albeit in varying degrees.

But in the last two weeks the government has suffered two clear defeats. The disastrous repercussions of the descent from the ramp on March 15th, with its participation in demonstrations against the National Congress and the Supreme Federal Court, and the denialist statements about the seriousness of the epidemic. These seem to have generated a qualitative leap, because they were the trigger, the spark, the flame that ignited a protest that began in middle-class neighborhoods, but tends to spread.

 There are at least two levels of evaluation in any analysis of the current situation. In fact, there are more than two, but that's a topic for another day. One is the evaluation of the social balance of power within the structure of society. The other is the political balance of power within the superstructure. They tend towards convergence, but when the situation changes, the disparity, the dissonance, increases. This is because the political struggle between the government, institutions, various organizations representing society, including the media and, above all, the movements of political parties, is more accelerated. Politically, Bolsonaro has weakened. These changes will affect the classes, but with some delay because the time factor is important.

There is a "ruler" for deciding whether to raise the slogan "Down with the government," "Out with Bolsonaro!" for political agitation. The criterion we inherited from the classics is whether this slogan is already mature in the consciousness of the majority of the working class. It is not necessary for the class to already be willing to take to the streets to try to overthrow the government now. It is different from a slogan for action. But it needs to be the majority position within the working class as a whole. The criterion is not the majority of the population. In the dizzying speed of changing circumstances, it is difficult to know if there is already a majority.

The working class can and should sway the majority. It has the social force to pave the way and overthrow the government. This happened in Brazil in 1979, in the final phase of the struggle against the dictatorship. The strikes by metalworkers, oil workers, bank employees, teachers, and others demonstrated a powerful social force that shifted the majority of the nation towards opposition to the dictatorship. This should be our bet, strategy, and inspiration.