Trump: Lula's campaign manager

Political scientist Marta Arretche, a professor at USP (University of São Paulo), believes that the sanctions and tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on Brazil had the opposite effect to that desired. They weakened Bolsonaro's movement and opened space for Lula to expand his internal political base. In this context, the frustrated participation of Eduardo Bolsonaro, who fled to the United States to conspire against Brazil, reveals the depth of the far-right's betrayal.

The offensive launched by US President Donald Trump against Brazil — imposing a massive 50% tariff on imports, sanctions against officials, and blackmailing the Brazilian judiciary — has become an unexpected element in the national political landscape. 

External interference and its internal effects.

According to an analysis by political scientist Marta Arretche, published in the newspaper Valor Econômico, this external pressure produced a paradoxical effect. It isolated Bolsonaro's supporters in Congress and opened space for Lula to appear as a defender and herald of national sovereignty.  

What could have meant just another crisis for the Brazilian government ended up becoming a political opportunity. The narrative of resistance to foreign interventionism strengthens domestic cohesion, something that has already been seen in other countries in similar contexts. 

National unity flag

This was the case in Cuba, which transformed the US embargo into a banner of national unity since the 1959 Revolution; in Iran, where sanctions imposed by the United States after 1979 were used as an instrument of popular mobilization against the 'external enemy'; in Vladimir Putin's Russia, which from 2014 onwards—and especially after the war in Ukraine in 2022—intensified the discourse of sovereignty to consolidate internal support; and in Venezuela, where both Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro exploited attempts at diplomatic and economic isolation to strengthen their political base. 

Even in Argentina during the Falklands War in 1982, there was a brief moment of national unity against the British offensive. In all these cases, external pressure acted as fuel to strengthen governments and regimes that, under normal circumstances, would face greater internal difficulties.

The isolation of Bolsonarism

The Bolsonaro camp is currently besieged on two fronts. On one side, it faces legal action, with Jair Bolsonaro being tried by the Supreme Federal Court for attempted coup d'état—a process that could lead to a long prison sentence. On the other, it suffers the impact of Trump's measures, which severely affect the Brazilian economy and erode political leaders and parliamentarians associated with former President Bolsonaro.

This double siege resulted in a weakening of forces in Parliament, diminishing the far-right's capacity for mobilization. Although its electoral base remains significant, its institutional political expression is reduced and fragmented.

Eduardo Bolsonaro: the emissary of the coup plotters

Within this context, the participation of Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro takes on revealing dimensions. Having fled Brazil in April, Eduardo settled in the United States with the sole mission of representing the interests of the far-right and conspiring against Brazilian sovereignty. 

In interviews and public statements, the congressman himself boasted of having influenced Donald Trump in decisions that resulted in direct harm to Brazil — such as the tariff hikes, sanctions, and blackmail against national authorities, especially ministers of the Supreme Federal Court (STF).

Eduardo's actions expose the darkest side of Bolsonarism. The political sector is willing to sacrifice the country's interests in the name of the survival of its personal power project and to exonerate Jair Bolsonaro from the ongoing crimes he has committed against democracy and against Brazil. This is an act of explicit betrayal, revealing the extent to which the Brazilian far-right is willing to align itself with external forces against the country and the Brazilian people themselves.

The window of opportunity for Lula

According to Marta Arretche, Lula has a unique opportunity before him: to transform the international crisis into a factor of internal unity. 

The American offensive opens up space for President Lula to present himself as the statesman he is, a defender of national interest and Brazilian sovereignty. This role may attract progressive and nationalist sectors, and even more pragmatic conservative segments, who see foreign interference as a common threat.

However, the political scientist warns that Lula's governance crisis goes beyond the Bolsonaro factor. It stems primarily from institutional limitations imposed on the Executive branch since the 1988 Constitution, which reduced presidential powers of direct negotiation and increased the power of Congress. This scenario demands structural reforms, otherwise any future government risks encountering the same difficulties.

Bolsonaro's arrest and the 2026 election

Another point addressed by Arretche is the impact of Jair Bolsonaro's potential imprisonment. Initially, his detention could reduce his capacity to mobilize the masses. However, it would not eliminate his electoral strength. 

Bolsonarism could reorganize itself around new figures, remaining a relevant player in the 2026 election. Furthermore, the far-right would exploit the narrative of "political martyrdom," seeking to capitalize on the idea of ​​judicial persecution.

Trump, the progressive "campaign manager".

The final effect of the analysis is ironic. Donald Trump has become, albeit unintentionally, a campaign tool for progressive sectors in Brazil. His offensive against the country ended up providing Lula with the chance to reposition himself as a leader of the resistance, strengthen his image with society, and expand his base in Congress.

And in the background of this plot, it becomes evident that the Brazilian far-right, represented by Eduardo Bolsonaro's desperate actions abroad, does not hesitate to act against national interests. Instead of strengthening the country, it bets on its weakening—and, in doing so, paradoxically contributes to the strengthening of Lula and democracy.