"Missing the cloud for Juno"

I'll start by explaining the meaning of the expression "To mistake the cloud for Juno". 

"To mistake the cloud for Juno" means to be deceived by appearances, to confuse desire with reality, or to misinterpret a sign or event. The expression is used to describe someone who is mistaken in thinking that something is better than it actually is, or who confuses something illusory with the truth. 

The expression is a reference to Greek mythology, where Jupiter (Juno in some versions) disguised himself as a cloud to meet Io, a character from Greek mythology, Jupiter's moon. Io, deceived by the cloud, was taken for a real encounter, which serves as a metaphor for deception.

Supporters of Bolsonaro live in delusion, in a parallel reality, and are daily bombarded with versions and lies of all kinds.

One of the lies is "The PT will bankrupt Brazil." This is one of the phrases repeated by Bolsonaro supporters, even knowing that the government is not "of the PT," but of a huge number of parties, from the right, through the center, to the democratic left, which is the PSB.

Bolsonaro supporters, whether the naive ones (who, in good faith, found easy answers to complex questions in the alienating, neo-Pentecostal, ultra-liberal, and authoritarian far-right) or the vile ones (who know that the economy and the Lula/Alckmin government are "doing just fine, thank you"), "lie without even realizing it" and generate crises all the time; these people, when they don't irritate me, amuse me, even though I know that what they say and publish seems like mockery, but, unfortunately, it's not a joke, because they are evil.

If the reader wants to meet a Bolsonaro supporter, watch the City Council sessions and wait for the pronouncements of councilman Benê Lima; he is responsible for the worst pronouncements I have ever heard in the Biléo Soares Tribune in more than thirty-five years of attending the Campinas City Council sessions. 

But let's move on and talk about the macroeconomic indicators, which Bolsonaro's supporters insist on ignoring, basing their empty activism exclusively on lies. 

Macroeconomic indicators are economic data that reflect the overall health of a country's or region's economy; they serve to assess the current situation and predict the future performance of the economy, assisting investors and central banks in making decisions and evaluating the effectiveness of economic policies. 

Considering these indicators, how is the economy doing under Lula/Alckmin?

GDP – The Gross Domestic Product, which is a flow indicator, that is, it measures the new production of goods and services, is doing very well; Brazil's GDP grew 3,4% in 2024 compared to 2023, totaling R$ 11,7 trillion. According to IBGE data, GDP per capita reached R$ 55.247,45, with a real increase of 3% compared to the previous year.

To the dismay of the far-right, which we've discovered loves the US more than Brazil, the country's growth was among the highest recorded among the most relevant economies, according to OECD data.

Brazil ranks fifth, behind only China, Costa Rica, Russia, and Denmark, and ahead of Spain, Turkey, Poland, the United States, Lithuania, Norway, and South Korea.

A inflationThe inflation rate, measured by the IPCA in Brazil, is the average variation in the prices of goods and services consumed by families, affecting the purchasing power of the currency. Under Lula/Alckmin, it is expected to be 4,9%, if projections for the end of 2026 are confirmed, according to estimates by MoneyYou published by Poder360. This would be the lowest level among governments of the 21st century. basic interest rate Set by the Central Bank, it impacts the cost of credit and influences inflation and investment, but the federal government does not have the power to interfere with this rate.Exchange Rate - The relationship between a national currency and other foreign currencies, such as the dollar, influencing international trade. If the second year of Lula's government ended with a surge in the dollar exchange rate and fears about the effects of this increase on prices and the economy (the dollar reached a historic record of R$ 6,27), the movement began to be reversed in the following days with auctions by the Central Bank and the approval of the spending cut plan that helped to contain the escalation. Today we see a dollar at R$ 5,33, that is, the rate of the last quarter of 2024 seems to have been in fact a speculative attack of a political nature, but it went wrong.Trade Balance – It is the balance between a country's exports and imports, revealing its position in foreign trade.

It is safe to say that Brazil's trade surplus will remain strong in 2025, having exceeded US$80 billion in 2024, after reaching US$90 billion the previous year in 2023. Brazil continues to export vigorously, especially oil, mining products, and agricultural products, despite challenges such as falling iron ore prices and the impacts of climate change on agribusiness.

In other words, the Lula/Alckmin government, which opened more than four hundred new export markets, is doing very well, so much so that Trump's illegal and immoral "tariff hike" did not prevent a new surplus in August 2025.

Consumption - Household spending on goods and services is directly linked to income and employment levels.

Household consumption during Lula's third term, in 2024 and the first quarters of 2025, has shown growth, driven by improvements in the labor market and the easing of credit. However, the scenario is mixed, with the end of 2024 registering a 1% drop in consumption due to inflation and higher interest rates, which also began to slow the movement in 2025. Although growth continues, the outlook is for a deceleration due to a more restrictive monetary policy, reflecting the Central Bank's interest rate policy.

These are the reflections.