Tick-tock, Supreme Court publishes ruling sentencing Bolsonaro to prison

The Supreme Federal Court published the judgment in Criminal Action 2668, which makes Jair's conviction final. Bolsonaro (PL) sentenced to 27 years and 3 months in prison for attempted coup d'état. The document, with almost 2 pages, formalizes the crime of leading an armed criminal organization that attempted to abolish the Democratic Rule of Law.

The publication not only opens the door for appeals, but also shifts the political landscape to the right. The concrete possibility of imprisonment in a closed regime, in addition to house arrest, puts pressure on the former president to define his successor and withdraw from the 2026 presidential race.

Behind the scenes, the interpretation is clear: Bolsonaro is trying to preserve influence by negotiating the top spot on the ticket, with Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP) as the natural candidate, and a family member, Flávio, Michelle, or Eduardo Bolsonaro, as vice-president. This move would be a way to keep the clan in the political arena without openly challenging the Supreme Court or placing the former president at the center of the political stage.

But there is a paradox unfolding. Bolsonaro's continued "calling the shots" is what most alienates Tarcísio, who seeks to distance himself from the former president's direct control in order to solidify the support of the oligarchs of... Faria Lima and moderate the discourse. The governor of São Paulo wants to be the viable conservative alternative, without carrying the legal burden of Bolsonarism, and each new step by the Supreme Court reinforces this dilemma.

In this vacuum, the name of the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Júnior, is gaining traction, as he observes the scenario as a right thirdRatinho, who is currently with the PSD, could potentially move to the PL, a likely destination for Tarcísio as well, should the right wing need a new leading candidate.

Insider information from Brasília suggests that Tarcísio is hesitant, fearful of losing control over São Paulo, even with the "guarantees" offered by the oligarchs of the financial system and the old media, who are already considering the possibility of multiple candidates for the presidency should the São Paulo governor withdraw from the race.

With or without Tarcísio, whether it's Ratinho, Caiado Whether it's Zema or all of them together, the clear favorite to win the 2026 elections remains the president. Squid (PT). And let it be clear: this is not wishful thinking, but a finding based on surveys by the main research institutes, ironically funded by Faria Lima itself.

Therefore, the Supreme Court's ruling is more than a judicial sentence: it's the ticking of a political clock. The ticking of the Justice system marks the inexorable advance of the criminal process, while the clatter of electoral alliances announces an inevitable rearrangement. And, in the rhythm of this compass, Bolsonaro finds himself between two paths: prison or inheritance.