Trump's tariff hike could re-elect Lula and repeat the anti-Trump effect seen in Canada.

Donald Trump's imposition of 50% tariffs on Brazilian products has rekindled Lula's social base, repositioned the 2026 political debate, and could repeat a phenomenon that has already brought down conservatives in Canada and Australia.

Recent reports from the New York Times, La Nación, BBC News, and Reuters indicate that the so-called "anti-Trump effect" helped Lula regain lost ground in public opinion by transforming the clash with the US president into a narrative of national resistance. The latest Genial/Quaest poll confirms this: disapproval of the government fell from 57% to 53%, and approval rose from 40% to 43%, breaking the downward trend that had been ongoing since July 2024.

Trump's hostility has rekindled Lula's image as a defender of Brazil.

The crisis has turned into a political opportunity. Trump's aggressive rhetoric, which includes investigations into Pix (Brazil's instant payment system) and alignment with Big Tech and Bolsonaro's supporters, was cleverly appropriated by the Planalto Palace (Brazil's presidential palace). Lula began presenting himself as the only one capable of "defending Brazil from a bully," in the words of the New York Times, and launched a new slogan: Brazil belongs to Brazilians. The phrase appeared on hats and official government profiles on social media.

The impact wasn't limited to digital marketing. According to the Quaest survey released this Thursday, July 17th, Lula once again beat Bolsonaro and other right-wing candidates in all simulated second-round scenarios. And, more importantly: the number of Brazilians who want to see him run for reelection increased from 32% to 38%.

The specter of the 'Trump effect' haunts the Brazilian right.

This episode is reminiscent of what happened in Canada last April, when the Liberals defeated the Conservatives aligned with Trump. There, as here, the Republican's belligerent rhetoric helped mobilize sectors of the electorate who feel threatened by foreign interference and economic extremism.

This electoral memory is important: the “Trump effect” is not just an external factor, but a decisive variable in the domestic politics of US-allied countries. By provoking Lula with unilateral tariffs and diplomatic threats, Trump offered the Workers' Party candidate a new chance to polarize the dispute under the banner of sovereignty.

Lula's reelection may depend on Washington.

Instead of weakening the government, the tariff hike gave Lula a legitimate external enemy. In the 2026 electoral chess game, this turnaround could be crucial. The right wing, which was betting on economic decline and anti-PT sentiment, now faces a symbolic setback: it is associated with international aggression against Brazilian interests. Bolsonaro's attempt to ride the Trump wave could backfire.

In Brasília, the effect is already noticeable. Leaders of the Centrão (center-right bloc), business leaders, and even sectors of the opposition have begun to treat Trump's rhetoric as a risk factor. In the Planalto Palace (presidential palace), the order is clear: keep the tension alive, reinforce the patriotic message, and emphasize that Lula is the only one capable of facing "external and internal threats."

Trump is Lula's biggest electoral asset in 2026.

What began as an economic offensive has become a political trump card. By attempting to interfere in the Brazilian election, Trump unintentionally gave Lula the opportunity to unite his base, engage with the center, and reclaim the narrative of national defense. If this scenario holds true, the Workers' Party candidate will reach 2026 with a strategic, emotional, and symbolic advantage.

Ultimately, the Brazilian election could be decided in Washington, and, ironically, in favor of Lula.