The horror show of September 7th could boost strategic voting for Lula.

The September 7th celebrations were transformed into a bizarre military marathon of electoral propaganda. The event, riddled with electoral crimes and funded with public money, was broadcast live on television for hours on end.

We witnessed election rallies organized by the Armed Forces for their candidate Jair Bolsonaro. On the civic date hijacked by the military, there was no mention of the bicentennial of independence; only crude and radicalized speeches directed at the fanatical hordes.

The top brass of the Armed Forces openly displayed themselves as a far-right political faction. Active-duty officers took to the electoral stage wearing full military dress uniforms. With this show of force and Bolsonaro-style power, the military party sponsored the burial of the already low credibility that the Armed Forces still possessed.

The absence of judicial and congressional authorities illustrates the institutional isolation of Bolsonaro and the military government. Not even the Speaker of the House, Arthur Lira, and the Attorney General, Augusto Aras, attended; these two, of all people, are staunch collaborators of fascism.

September 7th was conceived as a strategic milestone of the “Brasilia Capitol"It was supposed to be an apotheotic day in the fascist-military escalation, but it fell short of expectations."

The central banner of Bolsonaro and the military leaders to undermine the election – The attack on electronic voting machines and the contesting of the election results. – symptomatically, it wasn't mentioned in any speech; it simply vanished, as if it had ceased to exist.

This significant fact – the absence of the central banner of Bolsonarism at the September 7th rallies – This could represent a tactical shift for the military in the context of the attrition and demoralization they are suffering.

To explore this hypothesis, we need to go back a few days and recall the meeting between the president of the TSE (Superior Electoral Court), Minister Alexandre Moraes, and the Minister of Defense, General Paulo Sérgio Nogueira de Oliveira, on August 31st.

Following that meeting, a consensus was reached regarding a supposed pilot plan for conducting integrity tests on the voting machines. According to official statements, this understanding would be sufficient for the military to accept the election results.

In this sense, therefore, Minister Moraes' concession would offer an honorable way out for the tactical repositioning of the military leadership. With this "trump card," they could boast to their supporters that they had "extracted" guarantees from the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) for holding "clean elections."

It is evident, however, that when it comes to the military and its diversionary tactics, the supposed agreement to test the integrity of the ballot boxes may be yet another trap.

That's because the test model they suggested is a real makeshift solution that is known to be flawed – which is why the military designed it. And in that case, should the test fail, Bolsonaro and the military would then fabricate the desired rhetoric of fraud to disrupt the election.

Despite this risk, however, the hypothesis of adjusting the military's position resonates with reality. The situation worsened considerably for the government after Bolsonaro's meeting with foreign diplomats [July 18]. The event amplified the perception of the serious risk he represents and considerably increased his internal and international isolation.

The military leadership knows that they could only prevent Lula's victory by promoting ruptures and trampling on the rules of the game. The problem, however, is that they are isolated and demoralized, facing a huge crisis of legitimacy, and lack the political, social, and institutional support – both internal and external – to carry out the coup attempt.

Furthermore, the popularity of the Armed Forces is persistently declining. In the latest survey, it reached one of the lowest levels in the historical series, around 30%. Not coincidentally, this percentage is equivalent to Bolsonaro's voting intentions.

The horror show staged by the military government on September 7th had the collateral effect of increasing weariness with the archaic, savage, and truculent patterns of Bolsonarism. With the military-electoral marathon, Bolsonaro did not garner sympathy or support from undecided or contested voters; at best, he managed to communicate with his supporters.

In addition, feelings of fear and insecurity surrounding Bolsonaro, coupled with a yearning for tranquility and peace, could boost strategic voting for Lula, thus electing him in the first round.

Ciro's candidacy, which betrays the history of the PDT and Brizola to function as a variant of Bolsonarism, is likely to see its vote count flattened as its voters migrate to Lula.

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