They want to find out why Bolsonaro isn't rising in the polls.

It's amusing to watch political commentators analyze the election campaign. Sophisticated reasoning – or daydreams – seek to explain strategies, project scenarios, and evaluate hypotheses. It's interesting to see them say that, according to sources from this or that candidate, the direction of the campaign will be changed or maintained, the attacks on the opponent will be harsher, or a more moderate discourse will bring better results.

In recent days, most analysts have been trying to figure out why votes for Jair Bolsonaro aren't growing, despite the influx of money to the poor and the crowds gathered on September 7th. The president is stuck in his obscurantist bubble.

It doesn't take much science to explain the case. Fortunately, Bolsonaro is repudiated by the majority of Brazilians, he always has been. The 2018 election didn't consecrate him, but rather an anti-PT sentiment built by the rentier elite and fueled by the traditional media, as is well known. Even so, it's important to highlight: if he hadn't been imprisoned by the biased judge Sérgio Moro, Lula would have been elected president of Brazil in 2018. If the captain hadn't been ready for the mission, someone else would have been in his place.

Now, that story is over. Bolsonaro is no longer useful and has nowhere to run. After four years, his only legacy is shame. The president of Brazil insults Britons within the United Kingdom, lies blatantly at the UN General Assembly, and is inspired by another globally detested figure – Donald Trump. He has no charisma, no intelligence, no party affiliation, no political savvy, and no political support. He is poorly advised.

All that's left for him is a coup, but, by all indications, the Armed Forces wouldn't embrace such an adventure in the hands of a terrible military man, except for two or three thugs.

Just yesterday, commentators with the air of scientists were talking about Bolsonaro's campaign strategies to win over voters outside the medieval niche. Nonsense. Apart from the medieval voters, who make up no more than 30% of the electorate (a lot of people, in fact), nobody is seduced by misogyny, by rhetoric of violence and hatred, by blatant lies. Depoliticized, most of the electorate would be inclined to re-elect anyone, even a Bolsonaro, whose government at least brought some social relief, some economic progress, some environmental responsibility, some international prominence – none of that came close to Brazil in the last four years.

False moralism, based on a fictional fight against corruption that has already been duly debunked, co-opts some uninformed old men and their spineless children—those people who drive around in pickup trucks listening to country music, armed and thinking they own the city. As for religious discourse, that should motivate excommunications.

Jair Bolsonaro is not rising in the polls because the vast majority of Brazilians do not deny science, wanted and received the vaccine, and were moved by seeing people die of suffocation. In recent days, the Finance Minister denied the existence of hunger, causing the president to lose even more votes.

Deep analysis is needed to discover why Bolsonaro isn't winning votes outside his reactionary bubble. Voters are often easily fooled, but even that has its limits.