Who has the right to know if the decision will be political?

What was always predicted is beginning to take on clearer outlines. President Jair Bolsonaro will certainly not complete his term. It is even believed that he has stayed in office for too long. Even before his inauguration, it was predicted that he would not be able to complete his first year in office at the Palácio do Planalto. But he did, albeit with great difficulty; however, the advent of the Covid-19 pandemic contributed to exposing the "king" completely naked, in his insignificance, incompetence, ignorance, or bad faith, progressively weakening him.

Even since the outcome of the 2018 elections, when then-presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro avoided all debates with his direct opponent, then-presidential candidate Fernando Haddad of the PT (Workers' Party), Bolsonaro has made clear his own unpreparedness, in every aspect, to hold his current office. Now, the evidence indicates that he is preparing a coup orchestrated with the group of retired generals who surround him in the Planalto Palace, the militias infiltrated in the state military police, and the far-right groups that support him.

The question at hand is whether the unanimous support, or even a majority, of the Armed Forces would support him, with the backing of digital or military police militias, leading, firstly, to a civil war with the assassination of civilians opposed to the current regime; secondly, to military intervention under the pretext of "maintaining order." This would, of course, assume the president is enthroned as a dictator, with the National Congress and the Supreme Federal Court (STF) closed and a significant portion of their members imprisoned. The outcome of such a scenario will depend on the resistance of society.

The role of governors

And the governors – practically all of them – along with the democratic and opposition parties, have a crucial responsibility to prevent the progression of this authoritarian and coup-mongering escalation, starting, in each unit of the Federation, with operations aimed at investigating and neutralizing the militias within the military police. As already observed by jurists, analysts, and journalists, such as Reinaldo Azevedo, these operations to identify, hold accountable, and punish these Bolsonaro-supporting militiamen, armed to the teeth, are urgently needed.

As is also the case with the guarantee of democracy, the Supreme Court and Congress, by all indications, are reacting and not being swayed by threats such as that of the Minister of Defense, General Fernando Azevedo e Silva, who threatened the Judiciary with the argument that the military will not comply with "absurd orders." In a statement jointly signed with Bolsonaro and Vice President Hamilton Mourão, the minister cornered the Judiciary by officially stressing that the Armed Forces will not accept "political judgments."

The general forgot to explain who will arbitrate on the supposedly "political" nature of judgments that may eventually contradict the shady interests of Bolsonaro's supporters, in the case of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) or the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), which judges the fake news cases associated with Bolsonaro's campaign. If the TSE considers the suspicions that fake news benefited Bolsonaro in 2018 to be unfounded, it will not have been a "political" decision in the understanding of the Presidential Palace. And if it considers them founded? Will that be political?