Who benefits from the accusations against Trump?

In a few hours, Donald Trump will become the first former president of the United States to be indicted for a crime. It is speculated that more than 30 charges will be filed against him today in a New York court. The matter is making headlines across the country and the world, and many will benefit from the story, including the former president himself.

The indictment relates to the falsification of legal documents to disguise the payment of bribes to a former porn actress, Sormy Daniels, with whom Trump allegedly had an affair in the 2000s. It is a minor case compared to the accusations of involvement in the Capitol break-in and the attempt to change the outcome of the 2020 election. Analysts believe, however, that it is a more objective case, where there is concrete evidence of lawbreaking.

The fact that the case was considered minor, coupled with the unprecedented indictment of a former president, corroborated Trump's narrative. Within the Republican Party, even Trump's opponents in the primaries had to join him in arguing that this is a political trial. Supporters of the president and conservative media in the US speak of an attempt to use the justice system to destroy Trump's candidacy, who wants to return to the White House in 2025.

According to a poll conducted by ABC, Trump's rhetoric resonates with society: 47% of those surveyed believe the indictment is politically motivated. This number is very close to the 46,8% of votes the former president received in the last election. However, another poll, by CNN, shows that 60% of Americans favor the indictment.

There is no doubt that, at least as far as the Republican primaries are concerned, the indictment favored Trump. Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, and other potential opponents are cornered. If they support Trump, they won't win the nomination, but if they attack him, they lose support in a general election. The indictment even helped with the former president's campaign funding. In the first 24 hours after the indictment news broke, the campaign raised $4 million.

But what may seem like a help could become a stumbling block later on. The former president will not become ineligible. Nothing in American law prohibits him from running, even if convicted. The problem is how this accusation and a possible conviction would affect undecided voters, those who decided the 2016 and 2020 elections.

According to the vast majority of analysts, the social group that most influenced the outcome of the last elections was white suburban women. They were the deciding factor that caused states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin to swing to Trump in 2016 and then to Biden in 2020. Within this social group, a candidate accused of crimes, even if not convicted, is not viewed favorably.

In other words, the path to Trump receiving the Republican Party nomination has been made easier, but a possible victory in 2024 has become more difficult. It is also believed that the indictment in New York could lead to a domino effect, causing the former president to be indicted in the other (more serious) cases in which he is being investigated.

For Democrats, Trump as a candidate is seen as the best of all possible worlds. Despite his strong and vocal support base, the former president faces deep disapproval. Defeating Trump is easier than defeating De Santis or other Republicans, and perhaps that's why Biden will be the biggest beneficiary of all.