The proximity of the election is driving Bolsonaro to despair.

The recently released Ipec poll puts Bolsonaro in "desperation mode." He sees his disapproval rating increase, his voting intentions fall, and Lula's rise 25 days before the election. All predictions from Bolsonaro's supporters were that Lula would be overtaken in August. 

Some data from this survey are quite telling. The Southeast is the region with the largest number of voters (42%). There, Lula rose from 39% to 41%; Bolsonaro fell from 33% to 30%. Among those earning between 1 and 2 minimum wages (27% of voters), Lula rose from 47% to 49%, and Bolsonaro fell from 31% to 26%.

Note this last piece of data, dear reader. Bolsonaro dropped FIVE PERCENTAGE POINTS among the largest income bracket of the electorate, the primary target of his electoral favors. And he fell by more than the margin of error in the country's largest electoral college, the Southeast. 

There's no more time for anything. The former president of Ibope, Carlos Augusto Montenegro, says that "the election is a foregone conclusion," meaning that any relevant change in the three weeks remaining before the election is statistically improbable, given that this stability in the polls, with Lula far ahead, has already lasted for a year, three months, and 24 days. 

What miracle would allow Bolsonaro to achieve in three weeks what he couldn't in the previous 68 weeks, since Lula took the lead in the election on May 12th of last year, in the first in-person poll (Datafolha) of the pandemic?

Bolsonaro would need not only to overturn Lula's voting intentions, but he would need them to go to him instead of another candidate. And that would be impossible, because Lula's electorate rejects him with fury, strength, and faith. 

This analyst has always said that Lula's problem isn't beating Bolsonaro—he's the weakest president to have run for reelection since the country's redemocratization. Lula's problem is winning and staying in power, because nobody guarantees that the military will accept losing the stratospheric salaries they've been receiving since the current president took office. 

One of the many examples of the military's extravagant spending of public money is the vice-presidential candidate on Bolsonaro's ticket, General Walter Braga Netto, who received 926 reais in salary in two months of 2020, when Brazil was going through the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic. And he is far from being an isolated case. Generals who used to earn R$ 30 started earning R$ 300. 

It's fortunate that the current American regime is presided over by Joe Biden, who was the victim of a coup attempt by Donald Trump, exactly like the one Bolsonaro, according to higher courts like the STF, TSE, and STJ, will certainly perpetrate – whether it will succeed is another story. Therefore, Biden cannot support here what he rejects there. If Trump had been re-elected, a military coup in Brazil would have been as certain as nightfall. 

Still, there are many cushy jobs, all generous, not only for the military but also for their cronies. Not to mention Bolsonaro's greatest fear: going to jail, which few doubt will happen if he fails to maintain his presidential immunity. 

The good news is that Brazilians seem to have understood the gravity of the moment. Never before in this country's recent history have there been so few undecided and indifferent voters in an election. And never before has there been such a crystallization of votes as there is now. 

All this, however, is no guarantee against the desperation of Bolsonaro and those who benefit from cushy jobs. It is advisable not to relax, because an election only counts after the elected official takes office. Especially in Brazil, where the overwhelming majority of presidents have ended up being overthrown.