Weak president allows militarization of power.
"The militarization of the government is the main obstacle to the return of democracy in Brazil. A government without legitimacy, without the capacity to govern, which falls apart when it should be leading the country in a serious crisis like this, paves the way for the establishment of military power within the State," writes sociologist Emir Sader about the Bolsonaro government.
There is no vacuum in politics. Whenever such a vacuum exists, institutions emerge to fill it. The Armed Forces have played this role and will do so again.
In 1964, they created this vacuum to intervene, working hard to weaken the already weak government of Jango. Supported by the National Security Doctrine, they eroded the government's legitimacy and staged a coup, replacing the inept traditional politicians and steering the country for more than two decades. With the "catch the thief" mentality that democracy was in danger, they dismantled it for over two decades.
Now, once again, the traditional parties have entered a crisis, systematically defeated by the PT (Workers' Party), without alternatives to compete for popular support, due to their embrace of neoliberalism.
Bolsonaro took advantage of the new crisis in traditional parties to present himself as an alternative. He was a good candidate for the right. He was the only one who had a significant flow of support in the polls, thanks to having captured the support of the traditionally pro-PSDB base that had radicalized towards far-right positions. With this, Alckmin had no chance, and Bolsonaro was the only viable option for the right to orchestrate a monstrous maneuver that ultimately led him to fraudulently win the elections.
His outspoken, aggressive, and crude style projected an image of a popular leader. He appointed an ultra-neoliberal economist to secure the support of big business. He presented himself as the only possibility to prevent the PT (Workers' Party) from returning to government. He orchestrated gigantic manipulations, before the complicit eyes of the judiciary and the media, and seized control of the government.
He didn't have a party, just a group of adventurers. He doesn't unite; on the contrary, his style is divisive. He was a good candidate for the right, but he's a terrible leader.
He had already reconciled with the military, seeking the institution's support and personnel to fill state positions. He also sought the support of an institution committed to repression and the defense of order.
As Bolsonaro's party disintegrated and distanced itself from him, the government became increasingly filled with active and retired military personnel. Today they make up the government, even the Presidential Palace itself, while Bolsonaro loses momentum, support, and the capacity to act—a situation made even more serious by the pandemic spreading throughout the country.
The void left by Bolsonaro's inability to govern has already been filled by the military, who are increasingly committed, even as an institution, to this government. They will not leave, if they manage to stay. They could attempt the dangerous operation of replacing him with Mourão, or simply further militarize the government, establishing themselves as a veto power over government actions and the only core capable of providing any degree of governability to a completely lost government.
It's not the best approach for the Armed Forces, but it's the one that fell into their lap, and they won't fail to take advantage of it, with the fundamental objective of preserving the government, modified or not, and building an institutional framework that will prevent the PT (Workers' Party) from returning to power.
With the disintegration of Bolsonaro's government scheme, which has lost not only popular support but also the support of the media and large sectors of the middle class, the military becomes strategic, a condition for the government's existence, tending to become, more than that, the backbone of the government. This process clashes head-on with the restoration of democracy. The militarization of the government is the main obstacle to the return of democracy in Brazil. A government without legitimacy, without the capacity to govern, which disintegrates when it should be leading the country in a serious crisis like this, opens the way for the establishment of military power within the State.
* This is an opinion article, the responsibility of the author, and does not reflect the opinion of Brasil 247.
