Brazilian people 2, Bolsonaro 0

By Paulo Moreira Leite, for the Journalists for Democracy - Jair Bolsonaro hasn't even taken office yet, but the signs that he will arrive at the Planalto Palace after a campaign without real political debate, to defend proposals that go against the will of the majority of the population, are already becoming evident.

We know that in diplomacy, Bolsonaro made subordination to the US government of Donald Trump the fundamental point of Brazil's position in the world.

The diplomat chosen for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is the author of an article in which he refers to the President of the United States, a country with which Brazil shares some convergent viewpoints but also maintains a history of resistance to a permanent effort at hegemony and even domination, as the last hope for salvation. He speaks of "Trump's God." Similarly, during a visit to the US, Eduardo Bolsonaro, the most visible of the president's sons, even wore a Trump 2020 campaign hat.

Despite this, when Datafolha asked Brazilians what they thought about it, the response was overwhelming: 66% condemned the prioritization of diplomacy towards the US.

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Today, on the eve of the inauguration, another issue is under scrutiny: the purchase of firearms.

Two days after Bolsonaro himself announced his intention to facilitate gun ownership through a simple decree, and General Augusto Heleno, Minister of the Institutional Security Cabinet, compared owning a revolver to owning a car, Brazilians report having a different opinion. A total of 61% are against gun ownership and only 37% are in favor. This is a respectable difference of 24 points, much higher than the margin Bolsonaro obtained in the second round of the presidential campaign (55 to 45). It is also a consistent opinion. For at least five years, when asked about gun ownership, a majority of Brazilians have been against it. Before the results obtained in December 2018, the outcome was always in the same direction, with differences in the score: 68 to 30 in 2013, 55 to 43 in June 2017.

Bolsonaro's lack of genuine commitment to democracy prevents any illusion that he might bow to the opinion of the majority and make necessary course corrections. That's not the way to go.

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The popular rejection of two essential proposals from the new government reveals an important fact, however. The contradictions between Bolsonaro and the Brazilian electorate tend to intensify over time, precisely as his government is forced to show its true face and true intentions, very well hidden in a presidential campaign flooded with fake news, in which he escaped any real debate. The 2-0 score is the first sign of this. Others will come, sooner than the new government's friends like to imagine. Pension reform is the next item on the list.

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