Bolsonaro's popularity is plummeting.
Journalist Helena Chagas, from Jornalistas pela Democracia (Journalists for Democracy), analyzes the effects of the significant drop in approval ratings for Jair Bolsonaro's government, which fell from 49% to 34% between January and March; "The immediate consequence of the drop in presidential popularity makes Bolsonaro more dependent on Congress, more vulnerable to its demands and, above all, diminishes his firepower to approve the pension reform in the format sent to Congress," she says.
By Helena Chagas, for Journalists for Democracy - President Jair Bolsonaro continues to rapidly erode his popularity. According to an IBOPE poll released today, since January, the percentage of those who rate his government as good or excellent has plummeted 15 percentage points, from 49% to 34%. The percentage of those who consider the government bad or terrible has risen from 11% in January to 24%.
With these numbers, Bolsonaro is the least popular first-term president in his third month in office. Fernando Henrique Cardoso had 41% approval (good/excellent) in March 1995; Lula had 51% in March 2003, and Dilma Rousseff had 56% in the same month in 2011. In their second terms, FHC and Dilma had lower approval ratings than Bolsonaro has today, but a comparison with re-elected presidents is not appropriate.
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Not all is lost for Bolsonaro, who still has a 51% personal approval rating for his governing style and the confidence of 49% of those surveyed. But these figures are also falling. They were 57% and 55%, respectively, last month.
Bolsonaro's popularity is plummeting, and unless the government takes corrective action, it will continue to fall. Allies of the president are already talking about firing problematic ministers – Vélez? Ernesto? Damares? – and replacing them with people nominated by the parties.
The immediate consequence of the drop in presidential popularity makes Bolsonaro more dependent on Congress, more vulnerable to its demands, and, above all, diminishes his firepower to approve the pension reform in the form submitted to Congress.
There is no power vacuum. Whenever the Executive branch weakens, Congress becomes stronger. If it doesn't stem its loss of popularity, or if it fails to forge an alliance with traditional parties that provides it with political protection, the trend is that, by the end of the year, we will have yet another hostage of Brazilian-style presidentialism in the Presidential Palace.
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* This is an opinion article, the responsibility of the author, and does not reflect the opinion of Brasil 247.