Beijing sees Trump's hand in it and will not back down.

By Pepe Escobar, for the Asia Times

Translation by Patricia Zimbres, for 247

Even stranger things happened.

Everyone expected Donald Trump, President of the United States, to turn the tables and decree what would, in practice, be a death sentence against China because of the situation in Hong Kong. In an environment where Twitter and the President of the United States are waging open war, the rule now is that there are no more rules.

So, in the end, the measures announced against China turned out to be an anticlimax.

The United States is currently severing ties with the World Health Organization (WHO). The geopolitical repercussions are immense, and it will take time for this fact to be fully assimilated. In the short term, something has to serve as a scapegoat for the United States' appalling failure in dealing with Covid-19, so let it be a UN institution. 

Hong Kong's preferential status in international trade transactions will also be phased out, although at an uncertain future date and under still undetermined terms. 

Phase 1 of the US-China trade deal remains in effect – at least for now. However, there is no guarantee that Beijing will not begin to question it.

In summary: the "investors" have been duly appeased, for now. The Trump administration doesn't seem to be exactly versed in the subtleties of Hong Kong's Basic Law, as the president insisted on the "pure and simple violation of Beijing's treaty obligations to the United Kingdom." The national security law was attacked as "the latest" Chinese aggression against its own special administrative region. 

Compare all of this to the Two Sessions that took place in Beijing the previous day, with the intriguing and Keynesian performance of Premier Li Keqiang. His performance was admirable not only for what was left unsaid, but also for what he chose to bring to the public eye. 

Let's analyze some of the main points of this speech. Li emphasized that the resolution of the National People's Congress stipulating a national security law for Hong Kong Its purpose is to protect the "one country, two systems" principle, and it does not constitute an act of "aggression."

Instead of demonizing the WHO, Beijing has committed to a serious scientific investigation into the origins of SARS-CoV-2. "No cover-up" will be tolerated, Li said, adding that a clear and scientific understanding will contribute to global public health. Beijing also supports an independent review of the WHO's handling of COVID-19. 

In geopolitical terms, China rejects a "Cold War mentality"...and hopes that China and the United States will be able to cooperate. Li emphasized that this relationship can be either mutually beneficial or mutually harmful." decoupling It was described as a terrible idea, both for bilateral relations and for the world in general. China, after all, will start importing more, and this could benefit US companies. 

Internally, the absolute focus – 70% of all new budget allocations – will go towards employment, support for small and medium-sized enterprises, and measures aimed at stimulating consumption, rather than investments in infrastructure construction. In short, in Li's own words: "The central government will operate with a tight budget." 

While not entirely Sisyphean in the long term, this goal will at least be a "daunting task," in Li's terminology, considering that President Xi Jinping's proposed deadline for achieving the goal of eliminating poverty throughout China was the end of 2020.  

Li said absolutely nothing about three key issues: the alarming stalemate in the border conflict between India and China in the Himalayas; the prospects for the Belt and Road Initiative projects; and the complex geopolitical and geoeconomic relations with the European Union. 

The failure to mention this last topic is especially noteworthy in light of Chancellor Merkel's very encouraging assessment earlier this week, and also the comment made by the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, to a group of German ambassadors, saying that "the end of the American-led system and the arrival of an Asian century" is now "happening before our eyes."

Confirming rumors that constantly emanate from Frankfurt, Berlin, Brussels, and Paris, China and East Asia are rising to the position of the European Union's main trading partner. This is a subject that will be widely discussed at the EU-China summit, to be held next autumn in Germany. The European Union is transforming into Eurasia. Team Trump won't like it one bit. 

Dancing with Wolves remixed 

As expected, Beijing's leadership must focus on domestic consumption and achieving the next level of technological production, in order to avoid falling into the notorious "middle-income trap"The fine-tuning of the balance between internal stability and a very strong and broad global reach is another task that makes one think of Sisyphus." 

Xi, Li, and the Politburo are perfectly aware that COVID-19 has severely affected migrants, farmers, and small business owners. The risk of social unrest is very high. Unemployment protection is far from Scandinavian levels. Therefore, returning to work quickly must be the number one priority.     

This strategy comes wrapped in a new diplomatic offensive. Foreign Minister Wang Yi, generally meticulously nuanced and polished, has been becoming increasingly exasperatedEarlier this week, Yi defined the United States' demonization of China in relation to Covid-19 as "a product of three negatives: no foundation, no factual basis, and no international precedent."

He also described attempts to blackmail China with threats as "fantasies." Global TimesFor his part, he attacked the Trump administration for its "typical international banditry," also emphasizing that "labeling Chinese diplomacy as 'wolf warrior' reflects an extreme ideology." 

The "wolf warrior" narrative is bound to catch fire. Beijing seems poised to transform its diplomatic corps into a pack of wolf warriors. We must not forget that... General Qiao LiangIf China is forced to dance with wolves, let her be the one to set the pace. 

This applies perfectly to the Hong Kong issue. Whatever the Trump team may think, Beijing has absolutely no interest in disrupting Hong Kong's financial system or causing the Hang Seng index to collapse. But that is precisely what the black bloc protests achieved last year. 

What we have seen unfold over the course of this week is the result of what a task force sent to Shenzhen last year with the mission of examining all angles of the protests reported to the leadership in Beijing. 

It is reported that funding sources for the most radical black blocs were cut off. The local fifth-columnist "leaders" were isolated. Beijing had been extremely patient in dealing with this huge mess. Then came Covid-19. 

The economic consensus in Beijing is that the current recovery will be L-shaped – indeed, very slow at the base of the L. Therefore, the West will buy much less and invest much less in China. 

This means that Hong Kong won't be very useful. Its best chance has already been offered repeatedly: to integrate into the Greater Bay Area and become part of the prosperous southern cluster of the Pearl River Delta. Hong Kong's business sector supports this idea. 

Another conclusion was that, whatever Beijing does, the Sinophobic hysteria in the United States – and, in this case, also in the United Kingdom – will continue unchanged. Now, therefore, is the right time to resort to national security law which, of course, combats subversion, combats the British-era “wigs” (judges) who act as fifth columnists and, above all, combats money laundering.

An editorial from the Global Times He got to the heart of the matter: the national security law is the "death toll" of the United States' intervention in Hong Kong. 

Cold War 2.0

Despite Yi's insistence, this time diplomatically, that we are on the brink of a new Cold War, the fact is that the Trump administration's hybrid war against China – or Cold War 2.0 – is already in full swing. 

Mike Pompeo, the US Secretary of State, has been openly threatening allies and vassals of the Five Eyes, as well as Israel, with the consequences they will suffer if they refuse to abandon any project related to the Belt and Road Initiative. 

This is closely connected to the avalanche of threats and measures taken against Huawei and everything related to Made in China 2025, which is advancing rapidly, but without using the terminology. 

The official strategy of Trump's reelection campaign, "China, China, China," detailed in a 57-page memo addressed to Republicans, will inevitably be used as a full-blown hybrid war, including relentless propaganda, threats, information warfare technologies, cyber warfare, and fabricated journalistic scoops. 

The ultimate goal that all sinophobic strains have in common, whether commercial or linked to think tanksThe goal is to derail the Chinese economy – a major competitor – by any means necessary, thereby paralyzing the ongoing Eurasian integration process, whose three major nodes, China, Russia, and Iran, are the three greatest "threats" according to the United States' national security strategy. 

Once again, anything goes. And Beijing won't stop fighting back in kind. 

It's as if Beijing, until now, has underestimated the magnitude of the Deep State and Beltway's ultimate obsession, which is to remain forever as the undisputed hegemon, in geopolitical and geoeconomic terms. Every "conflict" that arises at some point on the chessboard is and will continue to be associated with the twin objectives of containing Russia and dismantling the Belt and Road Initiative. 

On previous occasions, I have referred to Empire of Chaos...where a plutocracy is progressively projecting its own internal disintegration onto the rest of the world. But only now is the game truly beginning, with Trump proclaiming his intention to resume nuclear bomb tests. Not against a bunch of petty "terrorists," but against a formidable competitor and an equal: the Eurasian strategic partnership.
It would be too much to expect that Team Trump would be able to learn anything from the Gramscian analyses Regarding the Belt and Road Initiative, they demonstrate that the Chinese Dream – a Confucian variant of neoliberalism – marks China's evolution and its entry into the center of the global neoliberal economic production zone, benefiting from the pre-existing global legal framework. 

Team Trump has vociferously outlined its own strategy. Expect a series of silent, Sun Tzu-style counterattacks.