Peace in Ukraine depends on realism regarding the factors of confrontation and those of dialogue in a multipolar world.

By José Reinaldo Carvalho, 247 - Russia and Ukraine, with the active participation of NATO, which supplies the Kiev regime with heavy and sophisticated weapons, as well as training for soldiers and officers, are engaged in intense fighting in the Donbass region, now almost entirely under Russian sovereignty, following the military triumphs of Putin's army and pronouncements by the population in favor of the region's new status.   

Alongside the fighting, intense diplomatic activity is underway, with China as one of the main players, as the Asian socialist country becomes a new factor in economic and political relations. from the emerging multipolar world. This is demonstrated by the recent launch by the Chinese Foreign Ministry of the 12 points for negotiations aimed at peace in Ukraine, the consolidation of the global strategic partnership with Russia with Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow last March, the understandings between the Chinese president and Emmanuel Macron and the president of the European Commission in the first week of April, and Lula's visit to China next week.

On the diplomatic and political front, Russia released a comprehensive document on March 31st updating its foreign policy, transparently outlining the guiding principles of its actions in the world.  

The starting point is the national interests of the Russian Federation and the definition of Russia's place in the world, which, according to the Kremlin strategists, is "determined by its significant resources in all spheres of life, its status as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, a member of major interstate organizations and associations, and one of the world's major nuclear powers." 

Although no longer a revolutionary and socialist country, the Russian Federation continues to claim its status as the successor country to the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and to extol the decisive contribution it made to humanity's triumph in the Second World War. 

Putin's government is showing itself willing to play an active role in creating a new system of international relations, affirming the principle of acting as one of the sovereign centers of world development. Russia considers itself capable of playing a constructive role in promoting the global balance of power, proclaiming the objective of building a multipolar international system and fostering world peace.  

The document defines itself as a set of concepts, principles, and norms of independent and multi-vectoral foreign policy and emphasizes responsibilities for maintaining peace and security at the global and regional levels. "Russia's foreign policy is peaceful, open, predictable, consistent, pragmatic, based on respect for universally recognized principles and norms of international law and the desire for equal international cooperation to solve common problems and promote common interests. Russia's attitude towards other states and interstate associations is determined by the constructive, neutral, or hostile nature of their policy towards the Russian Federation."

The document arrives at an opportune time, when humanity is living through a turbulent period that intertwines dangers and potential, amidst conflicts of various kinds, including a special military operation on the borders of the Russian Federation, in which it plays the leading role.

It is undeniable that humanity is living through a time of great change, described by Chinese leader Xi Jinping in his recent conversation with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin as the greatest in a century. The formation of a multipolar world is progressing at a faster pace than some readers of old textbooks might imagine, a world that will sooner or later lead to the construction of a new system of international relations, with reformed and entirely new institutions. This is one of the Kremlin's bets, whose new concept of foreign policy adopts as one of its premises the critique of the "unbalanced global development model," and the fight against neocolonialism and US hegemony. 

It is a bet on the exercise of full sovereignty by countries that have been victims of imperialist exploitation. 

The updating of Russia's foreign policy conception coincides with similar initiatives by China, aimed at global development, global security, and global civilization. Taken together, these initiatives emphasize the efforts of independent peoples and nations to defend equality and justice in international relations, the promotion of peace, the fight against the plundering of resources typical of neocolonialism, and opposition to hegemonism, the politics of force, and the imposition of the security of great powers at the expense of collective security.

Kremlin and Chinese Communist Party strategists understand that imperialist countries, led by the US, are fiercely opposing factors that favor the new reality of a multipolar world. To this end, they are deploying all their political, diplomatic, economic, and military weight to prevent the end of their hegemony, confront and weaken their rivals, instrumentalize the United Nations, and consolidate their alliances—an effort in which military factors (NATO) take priority over diplomacy. In this sense, the strategy of US imperialism encompasses the use of coercive measures, coups d'état, militarization to the extreme, and outright military action. The US reaction to the decline of its hegemony is the main threat of escalating conflicts, bringing the world to the risk of a global conflagration. 

The foreign and national security policy of the United States is based on the premise of ensuring "permanent leadership," which leads the White House, the Pentagon, and the intelligence and espionage community to what they call "affirmative engagement," in an attempt to build a strong and broad alliance of imperialist powers, middle-income countries, and subordinate emerging economies to increase their capacity to confront their enemies, the rising China and the "dangerous" Russia. 

The foreign policy perspectives of China and Russia, on the one hand, and those of the United States, on the other, are antagonistic. 

Although reaching agreements to end the conflict in Ukraine is not easy, not all doors are closed. This requires realism, taking into account the concrete geopolitical context and the new territorial reality resulting from the Russian special military operation, underway since February of last year. Demanding that Russia abandon its positions in Donbass belongs to the realm of idealistic abstractions. 

The key to opening up constructive perspectives is understanding which countries are committed to the pursuit of peace and shared development within the framework of the emerging multipolar world, and which ones, on the opposing side, want to impose their hegemony at all costs.