For the military, it's better for Bolsonaro to fall.

By Alex Solnik, for the Journalists for Democracy

We are living through such an unusual period in our history that sometimes it seems like Bolsonaro is going to stage a coup – that coup-mongering rally in front of the Army and then in front of the palace... the 300 at the encampment... the digital mob attacking the Supreme Court... the military's ambiguous position... – and other times it seems like Bolsonaro is going to fall – the devastating video... pressure on the Federal Police to protect his own... a drop in his approval ratings...

I put the word impeachment in the title, but it doesn't have to be exactly impeachment; it could be a common crime, as in the ongoing investigation, provided the Chamber authorizes the Supreme Court to investigate, which would result in Bolsonaro's removal from office for 180 days. Anyone removed for 180 days doesn't return.

It's a path that depends on the Chamber of Deputies, but not on Rodrigo Maia, which is an advantage because he doesn't even have the courage to examine any of the impeachment requests he's received, fearing that there won't be a 2/3 majority to approve the removal, and if he opens the process and loses, he's the one who will be removed.

If the request for authorization to investigate Bolsonaro comes from the Supreme Court, Maia has nothing to do with it; he will simply be another congressman voting for or against it.

Although there is no doubt that threats to democracy hang in the air in Brasília, I see the possibility of a coup diminishing more and more. This was evident from the testimonies given yesterday by the three generals from the presidential palace. One of them, Ramos, even contradicted Bolsonaro. In other words, they are not so in sync. And they will not embark on an adventure in which the scoundrel will have even more power.

They will be the first to be swallowed up.

If even the generals at the Presidential Palace aren't this upset with Bolsonaro, imagine how the High Command feels.

I think they're not that kamikaze, because the blame always ends up backfiring on them. What was the legacy of the 64 dictatorship besides torture and assassinations? What good did it leave behind? Only those who never lived through it or read about it feel nostalgic.

Also weighing on the situation is the fact that in the 60s there was the issue of the Cold War, Cuba had just become communist, and there was the pretext of a "threat to the homeland." Now, what there is is the threat of the president's sons going to jail.

The military will not spoil thirty years of respect for democracy, which is why they have such a high standing with the population, through an adventure led by someone with unstable and toxic behavior, especially towards those close to them.

And there's also this: if Bolsonaro falls, the military won't be left destitute; his vice president is a general, with whom they get along better, they even speak to him as generals to one another.

Deep down, it would be much better for the military if Bolsonaro fell.

Why on earth would they stage a coup in the name of continuing such a disastrous government?